分类: environment

  • OP-ED: The FAO faces a new agricultural revolution

    OP-ED: The FAO faces a new agricultural revolution

    Humanity currently stands at a defining paradox in global food production. While our accumulated scientific and technological knowledge gives us unprecedented capacity to grow food, the urgent need to reshape our agricultural systems is clearer than ever before.

    The 20th century’s Green Revolution stands as one of modern history’s greatest public welfare achievements. By dramatically boosting global crop yields, the movement delivered on what was once thought impossible: it fed billions of people across the globe and prevented the mass famines that experts widely predicted would accompany mid-century population growth. Yet this historic success came with steep, long-term environmental costs. The push for intensive agricultural production accelerated soil degradation, drove unsustainable increases in water consumption and chemical input use, and created widespread harm to natural ecosystems across the world.

    The core challenge for 21st-century agriculture is fundamentally different from that of the past. Today, our goal must be producing more food with far fewer resources: more nourishment for a growing global population on less land, higher productivity through more efficient water management, and shared prosperity for farming communities, alongside increased carbon sequestration in soils, expanded biodiversity, and more resilient, healthy ecosystems.

    This urgent transformation must be the central priority for the next phase of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s work. Among all regions, Latin America and the Caribbean have an outsize role to play in this global effort. The region is already a foundational pillar of global food security, and it has emerged as a massive living laboratory for cutting-edge agricultural innovation.

    Countries across the region, including agricultural powerhouses Argentina and Brazil, have already built advanced production systems that integrate modern science, technology, precision farming practices, no-till agriculture, genetic crop improvement, and regenerative natural resource management strategies.

    The Brazilian Cerrado biome offers one of the most compelling examples of what this transformation can achieve. Decades of targeted scientific research and iterative innovation turned a region once widely written off as having little to no agricultural potential into one of the world’s most productive and critical food-producing hubs.

    The key takeaway from this success is not that the Cerrado model should be copied and pasted into other regions without adaptation. Instead, the core lesson is that intentional investment in science can turn long-held assumptions about natural constraints into new opportunities for inclusive development.

    Today, the African continent needs its own context-specific agricultural revolution. There is no one-size-fits-all solution that works for every region, but there is one universal guiding principle: all agricultural policy and practice must be rooted in scientific evidence.

    Throughout my decades-long scientific career, I have worked to demonstrate that soil health is inextricably connected to the health of plants, livestock, human communities, entire ecosystems, and the future of the planet itself. Long-term, global food security is impossible to achieve when we continue to rely on degraded, overexploited soils.

    It is for this reason that I see the “Living Soils of the Americas” initiative as such a critical model for global action. Developed in partnership with the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) during the tenure of Argentine leader Manuel Otero, the initiative brings together a diverse coalition of stakeholders: scientific researchers, national governments, working farmers, private sector businesses, and civil society organizations, all united around a shared core idea: expanding agricultural production and protecting the natural environment are not opposing goals.

    Healthy, managed soils can simultaneously deliver multiple public and private benefits: they store atmospheric carbon, preserve freshwater reserves, support greater biodiversity, boost agricultural resilience to climate shocks, and maintain consistent, high levels of crop productivity.

    The successful framework developed across the Americas has already begun to spread to the African continent. Decades of innovation in regions like Brazil’s Cerrado offer invaluable actionable insights for sustainable agricultural development across Africa’s savanna biomes. This cross-regional exchange embodies the standard that modern international cooperation should live up to: it focuses on sharing evidence-based knowledge and co-creating locally adapted solutions, rather than imposing pre-built, one-size-fits-all models on developing regions.

    The FAO already holds a unique and powerful combination of assets: unmatched technical expertise, a widespread global footprint, and a proven ability to convene stakeholders from across sectors and borders. But international institutions only fulfill their core mandate when this institutional capital is translated into tangible, on-the-ground benefits for member nations and the communities they serve. For the agricultural sector, this means centering the needs of working food producers in every initiative.

    The FAO of the future must position itself closer to farmers, scientific researchers, private sector partners, academic institutions, and national policy-makers. It must identify proven, workable solutions, connect those solutions to the communities and regions that need them most, and support local adaptation and scaled adoption of successful practices. Above all, we must close the persistent gap between scientific knowledge and on-the-ground agricultural practice.

    Throughout my years of collaboration with IICA, I worked closely with Manuel Otero and witnessed firsthand his results-focused approach to international agricultural cooperation. Otero prioritized building cross-sector partnerships between scientists, producers, governments, and private industry, and advocated for a model of international cooperation that delivers measurable, concrete outcomes. Our shared work confirmed that well-led international organizations can serve as an effective bridge between scientific innovation and public policy, and facilitate the transfer of context-appropriate knowledge between regions.

    This proven model is particularly relevant today, as the FAO confronts a new set of interconnected global challenges. The organization needs to deepen its collaborative ties with member states, put working farmers at the center of all its strategic priorities, strengthen partnerships with the global scientific community and private sector, and more effectively disseminate proven best practices across borders.

    Otero’s track record offers a clear, actionable blueprint for how the FAO can pursue this necessary transformation. His potential candidacy for FAO Director-General brings a comprehensive, experience-tested set of solutions to the pressing challenges the organization currently faces.

    Yet the stakes of this moment extend far beyond any single individual. At its core, what we are debating is what kind of FAO the world needs to meet 21st-century challenges.

    We need an FAO capable of leading a new, sustainable global agricultural revolution: one rooted in scientific evidence, that enables us to produce more food with fewer resources, that restores degraded soils rather than depleting them, and that generates inclusive prosperity for farming communities and food systems worldwide. The knowledge to achieve this already exists, and so do proven, successful examples. What we need now is the collective will and institutional capacity to turn that knowledge into global action.

  • Hurricane Polo Weakens Slightly to Category 4, Begins Moving Away From Mexico’s Coast

    Hurricane Polo Weakens Slightly to Category 4, Begins Moving Away From Mexico’s Coast

    In the latest update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Polo has weakened slightly from its peak Category 5 intensity to a high-end Category 4 storm, and has begun its steady movement away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. As of 9:00 a.m. Central Standard Time on Thursday, the storm’s core was positioned approximately 195 miles west-southwest of Zihuatanejo and around 150 miles south of Manzanillo, tracking west-northwest at a steady 10 miles per hour.

    Meteorologists project that the storm will shift to a pure westward trajectory through the remainder of Thursday and Friday, before resuming a west-northwest path on Saturday. This projected track means the system will continue to pull farther from the Mexican mainland over the coming days.

    At the time of the advisory, Polo’s maximum sustained winds clocked in at 155 miles per hour, just 5 mph below the Category 5 threshold on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Its minimum central pressure was measured at 928 millibars, a reading that reflects the storm’s still-extreme strength. Hurricane-force gusts and sustained winds extend outward 40 miles from the storm’s center, while tropical storm-force conditions reach as far as 125 miles from the core. Forecasters note that minor fluctuations in strength remain possible over the next 48 hours, even as the system tracks away from land.

    Despite Polo’s outward movement, public safety alerts remain in place for much of Mexico’s southwestern coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is still active for the stretch of coastline from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, while a Tropical Storm Watch extends from west of Manzanillo to Playa Perula. Tropical storm conditions are already being recorded in the warning zone and are expected to persist for several more hours, with similar conditions possible in the watch area through the day.

    The greatest lingering threats to inland and coastal communities come from heavy rainfall and ocean activity. The NHC projects that coastal regions of Michoacán, Colima, northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit will see an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated spots receiving up to 6 inches of precipitation. This added rainfall raises the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous and steep-terrain areas that are already vulnerable to storm-related hazards. Coastal Guerrero and central Jalisco can expect an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, according to the forecast.

    Large swells generated by Polo are also expected to impact southwestern Mexico over the next two days, spreading north to west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur by Friday and through the weekend. These swells will likely create dangerous surf conditions, powerful rip currents, and coastal flooding that threaten life for beachgoers and coastal residents.

    Federal and local officials are urging all residents in potentially affected areas across southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur to continue closely monitoring updates on Polo’s track and intensity. The NHC will issue its next official advisory on the storm at 3:00 p.m. CST Thursday.

  • Dominican Republic calls for stronger measures to protect coastal communities

    Dominican Republic calls for stronger measures to protect coastal communities

    Against the backdrop of the 81st United Nations General Assembly in New York, a pressing call for collective action on climate change has emerged from the Caribbean region. At the 4th Climate Mobility Summit, a parallel event focusing on climate-driven population movement, Max Puig, executive vice president of the Dominican Republic’s National Council for Climate Change and Carbon Market (CNCCMC), delivered a clear appeal for strengthened cross-border collaboration to counter accelerating sea level rise and the climate displacement it triggers.

    Puig opened his remarks by stressing that no single Caribbean nation can shoulder the burden of this growing crisis alone. As a small island developing state with over 1,500 kilometers of exposed coastline, the Dominican Republic offers a stark example of the region’s vulnerability. Most of the country’s population, critical infrastructure, and core economic sectors are concentrated along its shorelines, leaving these assets extremely exposed to the gradual advance of rising seas. If current warming trends continue, Puig explained, higher sea levels will exacerbate a cascade of interconnected threats: intensified coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies, more frequent and severe flooding, and amplified storm surges that overwhelm coastal defenses. These changes do not only threaten human settlements—they also degrade the natural barriers that protect communities, including mangroves, coral reefs, and sand beaches, all of which underpin the Caribbean’s two largest economic pillars: fishing and tourism.

    The human cost of this degradation is already visible, Puig emphasized. More than 9,000 Dominican fishermen and their families rely directly on healthy coral reefs for their livelihoods. As reefs decline, this endangers not just jobs and household incomes, but also local food security and the ability of generations-old coastal communities to remain on their traditional lands. For the Dominican Republic, displacement driven by climate hazards is not a distant threat: national data records show more than 79,000 people were displaced by climate and weather disasters between 2017 and 2022, most from sudden extreme weather events. Unlike these acute events, Puig noted, sea level rise acts as a slow-onset crisis that gradually erodes the habitability and economic viability of coastal areas, creating a hidden, steady flow of displacement that is often overlooked in global climate planning.

    The scale of potential displacement across the entire Greater Caribbean region is staggering. Projections from the Climate Mobility Model for the Greater Caribbean estimate that by 2050, roughly 8.2 million people could be permanently displaced by the economic impacts of climate change, with nearly 6 million of those people relocating within their own national borders. Puig was careful to clarify that these figures are not definitive predictions—instead, they serve as an urgent warning to help governments proactively plan for future pressures on communities, housing, critical infrastructure, and public services that will come with widespread displacement.

    To address this growing crisis, Puig outlined three non-negotiable priorities for regional and global action. First, he called for greatly expanded, accessible financing for climate adaptation projects, noting that small island developing states lack the capital to fund large-scale coastal protection and planning on their own. Second, he urged regional cooperation frameworks that center the protection of the rights and dignity of displaced communities, rather than treating displacement as a purely administrative problem. Third, he pushed for a just green economic transition that generates new, sustainable employment opportunities for young people in the region, creating alternatives to climate-vulnerable coastal livelihoods.

    Currently, the CNCCMC is partnering with the Global Center for Climate Mobility to develop public policies and international cooperation mechanisms designed to shield vulnerable communities and their unique cultural heritage from climate-related harm. This work aligns with the UN Declaration on Sea Level Rise, a global agreement that aims to improve risk mapping and data collection, strengthen adaptation capacity, expand climate financing, and protect at-risk communities. The declaration also prioritizes the preservation and documentation of cultural heritage threatened by sea level rise, including traditional territories, historic cemeteries, sacred indigenous sites, archaeological landmarks, and culturally significant coastal landscapes that define the identity of Caribbean communities.

  • Tropical Disturbance Now Has 70% Chance of Developing in Atlantic

    Tropical Disturbance Now Has 70% Chance of Developing in Atlantic

    The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded its probability forecast for a developing tropical system in the far eastern Atlantic, now estimating a 70% chance that the disturbance will strengthen into either a tropical depression or a named tropical storm. In its official 8 a.m. public update issued Thursday, forecasters outlined that the broad low-pressure system, identified by the designation AL90, is currently positioned several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. At present, the system generates a wide, disorganized spread of showers and convective thunderstorm activity across the surrounding region.

    Per NHC forecasting models, AL90 is projected to track northwestward, eventually shifting to a more northward path over the coming days. This trajectory will bring the system close enough to the Cabo Verde Islands to bring unsettled weather to parts of the archipelago by Friday. The 48-hour and seven-day formation probabilities for the system both sit at 70%, marking a 10 percentage point increase from the 60% odds published in the NHC’s 2 a.m. outlook earlier Thursday.

    Despite the elevated chance of early formation, NHC forecasters note that unfavorable atmospheric conditions will halt the system’s strengthening by the weekend. Increasing wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere is expected to tear the system apart, limiting any further organized development after that point. While the system is not expected to last long, local authorities and residents across the Cabo Verde Islands have been urged to stay updated on the latest forecasts. The disturbance is projected to bring gusty winds, intense downpours, and a heightened risk of flash flooding to portions of the island chain starting as early as Friday.

    As of the latest Thursday update, AL90 remains far out in the eastern tropical Atlantic. The NHC’s current assessment confirms that there is no immediate threat to the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda, nor to any areas in the northeastern Caribbean. Forecasters will continue to issue regular updates and track the system’s movement and development closely as it progresses across the Atlantic basin.

  • CAF grants US$200k for resilient housing standards

    CAF grants US$200k for resilient housing standards

    The Caribbean, long recognized as one of the globe’s most high-risk regions for natural hazards, is set to receive targeted support to improve its residential safety standards, after the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) greenlit a $200,000 technical assistance grant for the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA).

    For decades, frequent extreme weather events including devastating tropical cyclones, flash floods, catastrophic landslides, and unforeseen seismic activity have destroyed residential neighborhoods, uprooted communities, and set back years of hard-won economic progress across the Caribbean’s small developing island nations. Unlike reactive post-disaster reconstruction efforts, this new 18-month initiative, the Regional Resilient Residential Construction and Reconstruction Project, prioritizes proactive risk reduction to strengthen the region’s existing housing stock, prevent preventable loss of life, protect personal property, and speed up social and economic recovery following future extreme events.

    Built on the foundation of CDEMA’s existing Safer Building Programme, the project centers its work on the people and institutions that shape local construction practices across the region. Unlike large-scale infrastructure projects that focus only on physical builds, this initiative targets human capacity: technical assistance will directly reach local builders, trade artisans, independent construction contractors, and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions across 19 Caribbean member states. Through hands-on targeted training and updated educational materials, the program will upskill current tradespeople in climate-resilient construction techniques, while supporting vocational colleges to integrate the region’s official Regional Code of Practice for Residential Construction into their permanent core curricula, creating long-term systemic change.

    Beyond upskilling trade professionals, the initiative also aims to embed a culture of disaster preparedness across all layers of Caribbean society. A core component of the grant will fund public and institutional awareness campaigns to highlight the life-saving value of resilient housing standards. By engaging homeowners, local mortgage lenders, property developers, and national government policymakers, the project seeks to drive widespread adoption of certified, safer building practices for both public sector housing developments and private residential construction.

    Dr. Stacy Richards-Kennedy, CAF’s regional manager for the Caribbean, emphasized that proactive risk management delivers far greater long-term value than post-disaster recovery. “Rebuilding after a disaster will always be necessary, but preparing before one strikes is where we can make the greatest difference,” she explained. “Resilience begins with the way residential infrastructure is designed and built. This aligns with CAF’s commitment to invest not only in resilient infrastructure projects, but also in knowledge, technical capacity and practices that will serve to reinforce a culture of disaster preparedness across the Caribbean. CAF is proud to partner with CDEMA and to provide technical assistance grant funding to support this important project to build more resilient communities.”

    CDEMA Executive Director Elizabeth Riley echoed this focus on pre-emptive investment, noting that repeated climate disasters have underscored the urgent need to build local capacity to protect the region’s hard-won socio-economic development. “Every disaster reminds us that resilience is not built in the aftermath of an event, but through the decisions we make before it occurs,” Riley said. “Strengthening the way our homes and communities are designed and built is therefore a critical investment in protecting lives, livelihoods and our development gains.”

    Riley also highlighted the critical role of cross-institutional partnerships in advancing long-term climate adaptation and regional safety. “CDEMA is pleased to be working with CAF to address these challenges by strengthening resilient construction practices, building technical capacity and promoting greater disaster preparedness across the Caribbean,” she said. “Partnerships such as this are critical to ensuring that our communities are better prepared to withstand the impacts of disasters and that the region’s development gains are protected.”

  • Antigua and Barbuda, Octopus Energy Explore Ways to Cut Electricity Bills and Fuel Imports

    Antigua and Barbuda, Octopus Energy Explore Ways to Cut Electricity Bills and Fuel Imports

    Against a backdrop of accelerating climate change and growing global pressure to end fossil fuel dependency, a landmark new partnership between U.K.-based energy innovator Octopus Energy and the government of Antigua and Barbuda has launched to reimagine the Caribbean nation’s energy future. Unveiled during the Global Citizen NOW: Impact Session held alongside New York Climate Week, the collaboration sets out to deliver a cleaner, more affordable, and far more resilient energy system for the country’s residents by leveraging cutting-edge smart renewable technology.

    At the core of the joint initiative is a shared goal to cut Antigua and Barbuda’s longstanding reliance on costly imported fossil fuels, by integrating four key clean energy pillars: utility and residential solar power, utility-scale and distributed battery storage, widespread electric vehicle adoption, and flexible, intelligent demand management. What makes the partnership particularly distinct is Octopus Energy’s deep expertise in Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) — a groundbreaking smart energy system that networks decentralized clean energy assets, from rooftop solar panels and home battery banks to electric vehicles, to operate as a single coordinated energy resource that stabilizes grid stress and cuts consumer costs.

    Octopus Energy already operates one of the world’s largest VPP networks, connecting and optimizing nearly 500,000 individual energy devices across its existing markets. The combined capacity of this network is roughly equivalent to the output of three full-sized nuclear power stations, demonstrating the scalable impact of the technology the firm will bring to the Caribbean.

    For Antigua and Barbuda, this partnership is far more than an energy project: it is a critical step toward delivering the nation’s ambitious climate and energy targets. The country has committed to sourcing 86% of its total electricity from renewable sources and requiring all new car sales to be electric by 2030, goals that require targeted technical expertise and innovative partnership to achieve. As a small island developing state (SIDS), Antigua and Barbuda faces a unique dual crisis: it is on the front lines of climate change impacts including rising sea levels and more intense extreme weather, even as its economy and energy system remain hostage to volatile global fossil fuel markets that keep household energy costs artificially high. Expanding locally generated renewable energy directly addresses both challenges simultaneously, boosting energy security while cutting the country’s carbon footprint.

    Gaston Browne, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, emphasized the stakes of the transition for his nation in remarks following the announcement. “For Small Island Developing States such as Antigua and Barbuda, the transition to renewable energy is both an environmental imperative and an economic necessity,” Browne said. “Our continued dependence on imported fossil fuels exposes our people and businesses to high and volatile energy costs, while climate change poses an existential threat to our development.”

    He added that the collaboration with Octopus Energy opens the door to practical, integrated solutions that combine renewable generation, electric mobility, storage, and smart technology to deliver tangible benefits. “Antigua and Barbuda has set an ambitious course towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future. We welcome partnerships that bring innovation, investment and proven technology to help translate that ambition into measurable benefits for our citizens,” Browne said. “Our objective is clear: to build a modern, resilient and increasingly renewable energy system that delivers cleaner and more affordable power while demonstrating that small island states can lead the global energy transition.”

    The partnership will hit its first milestone well ahead of broader energy planning, with Octopus Energy’s electric vehicle division set to supply a fleet of electric vehicles for the 2026 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), which Antigua and Barbuda will host in its capital St. John’s from 1–4 November that year. The event will serve as a live demonstration of the country’s commitment to electric mobility and clean energy for international audiences.

    Zoisa North-Bond, CEO of Octopus Energy Generation, noted that the collaboration fills a critical gap for climate-vulnerable small island nations that have long been overlooked in the global clean energy transition. “By partnering with Antigua and Barbuda, we’re exploring how clean power and technology can help address the unique energy challenges small islands face,” North-Bond said. “Our goal is simple: people everywhere should benefit from the lower costs that renewables and smart tech offers. Together, we hope to build an implementable plan to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and build a more resilient energy system.”

    Global Citizen, which organized the impact session that brought the two parties together, hailed the partnership as a model for how cross-sector collaboration can deliver tangible progress for SIDS. Michael Sheldrick, Co-Founder and Chief Policy, Impact and Government Relations Officer at Global Citizen, said small island states should never be forced to choose between affordable energy for their residents and climate resilience. “This partnership demonstrates the practical coalition needed to deliver both: government leadership, Octopus Energy’s technology and delivery expertise, and Global Citizen’s ability to convene partners and mobilize action,” Sheldrick said. “Beginning with electric mobility at CHOGM and building towards a smarter, locally powered energy system, Antigua and Barbuda can create a model with relevance far beyond its shores.”

    The Antigua and Barbuda partnership is part of Octopus Energy Generation’s broader global expansion strategy, which increasingly prioritizes expanding renewable energy access, attracting clean energy investment, and unlocking economic opportunity in emerging and developing markets. Through the firm’s Power Africa Initiative, Octopus has set a target to catalyze $450 million in new clean energy investment across the African continent. The company is also currently developing Sierra Leone’s first ever utility-scale wind farm on climate-vulnerable Sherbro Island, in partnership with actor and activist Idris Elba’s Elba Hope Foundation. The project will bring reliable, affordable clean power to thousands of currently underserved households and local businesses.

  • Urgent action needed to protect sovereignty and survival of SIDS

    Urgent action needed to protect sovereignty and survival of SIDS

    As climate-driven sea level rise accelerates its destructive march across low-lying coastal regions, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are facing an unprecedented crisis that threatens not just their daily livelihoods, but their core sovereignty and long-term national survival. Speaking at a high-profile UN meeting convened specifically to address this growing emergency, the acting prime minister of Saint Kitts and Nevis has issued a urgent call for the international community to turn rhetorical recognition of the crisis into tangible, actionable support for at-risk island nations.

  • Zeer sterke El Niño kan komende maanden leiden tot 451.000 extra hittegerelateerde sterfgevallen

    Zeer sterke El Niño kan komende maanden leiden tot 451.000 extra hittegerelateerde sterfgevallen

    As an unusually intense El Niño event builds in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a groundbreaking new analysis from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab has delivered a stark warning: the natural climate phenomenon could lead to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths across the globe over the coming six months. Researchers emphasize that this figure is a model-based risk assessment, not a precise prediction of exact fatalities, calculating excess mortality against baseline temperature averages for a typical year.

    The analysis currently focuses on the period from September 2026 through February 2027, but the team warns that the impacts of record-breaking heat may linger long after this window, particularly as spring and summer arrive in the Northern Hemisphere. The warning comes as leading meteorological bodies around the world confirm that El Niño is rapidly gaining strength.

    Early this month, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated there is a near-certain chance the event will persist through February 2027, and is on track to intensify into a rare “strong event” that will peak by the end of 2026. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) echoes this assessment, reporting that sea surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific are already more than 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. NOAA estimates the probability of this event ranking among the most intense El Niños on record reaching 75% for the October to December 2026 period.

    El Niño reshapes global atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to drastically different impacts across regions: some face deadly extreme heat and crippling drought, while others are hit by catastrophic heavy rainfall and flooding. For the upcoming event, Climate Impact Lab projects global average land temperatures will sit 1.2 degrees Celsius above non-El Niño baselines, with the number of extreme heat days rising by 44% compared to average years.

    The worst impacts are projected to fall disproportionately on low-income, warmer regions across Africa, Asia, and South America. The Sahel region is expected to see roughly 66,800 excess heat-related deaths, with Nigeria hit hardest at approximately 31,400 additional fatalities, followed by Sudan with 17,500. Other heavily impacted nations include Indonesia (19,300), India (15,800), and Brazil (13,300).

    Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a co-author of the study, explained that vulnerability extends beyond raw temperature increases. “If you already live in a warm place, those extra couple of degrees are far more dangerous,” he said. Additional factors shaping mortality risk include population size, population exposure to unregulated high temperatures, access to healthcare, electricity and cooling, and governmental capacity to implement adaptive measures. Lower-resource nations face compounded risk, as extreme heat often overlaps with pre-existing crises in food security, energy access, and public health infrastructure.

    Notably, the 451,000 figure only accounts for excess heat-related mortality. The total health toll of the event could be far higher, as strong El Niños also trigger droughts, wildfires, extreme flooding, and disruptions to agricultural production that further strain food security across vulnerable parts of Asia and Africa. Earlier this month, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that the 2026 El Niño will bring a wide range of interconnected health risks, urging nations to prioritize preparation for vulnerable communities and already overburdened health systems. The WHO notes that heat is already one of the leading causes of weather-related mortality globally, with an average of 489,000 heat-related deaths recorded annually between 2000 and 2019.

    While El Niño itself is a natural periodic cycle of ocean and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific, not a direct product of anthropogenic climate change, it is unfolding on a planet already warmed significantly by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. This means the baseline global temperature is already higher, amplifying the extreme heat impacts of even a natural El Niño event. The WHO confirms that combining El Niño with long-term climate change-driven warming significantly increases the probability of extreme heat events across most regions. Researchers stress they are measuring excess mortality against a baseline average year, rather than attributing every extreme temperature or death directly to El Niño.

    The 451,000 estimate carries important caveats: it is not an observed fact or a guaranteed outcome. Researchers produced the figure by combining historical temperature-mortality relationships across thousands of global regions with projected temperature trends for the coming months, leaving exact regional outcomes uncertain. External climate factors can either amplify or dampen El Niño’s impacts, and heat sensitivity varies across populations. The WMO adds that El Niño strength alone does not determine local weather, with conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also able to reshape regional impacts. As such, the study is framed primarily as a warning about the scale of potential risk, not an exact prediction of fatalities.

    Despite the grim projection, researchers note that there is still time for governments to act to reduce harm. Targeted preparedness measures including early extreme heat warnings, public cooling centers, improved workplace protections for outdoor laborers, and expanded healthcare capacity during heat events can cut mortality significantly. The WHO shares this conclusion, noting that most heat-related health impacts are predictable and preventable with timely, coordinated action. With El Niño projected to continue strengthening through the end of 2026 and persist at minimum through February 2027, the coming months are seen as a critical window for preparation to avoid preventable deaths.

  • Dominica calls for climate funding before disaster strikes

    Dominica calls for climate funding before disaster strikes

    When small island developing states grapple with escalating climate-driven extreme weather, the president of Dominica has delivered a clear, urgent call to the global community: shift the current reactive approach to climate crisis response and invest in climate resilience before catastrophic events strike. Speaking from the podium of the 81st United Nations General Assembly in New York, Sylvanie Burton highlighted that the existing model leaves highly vulnerable nations like hers saddled with new debt to rebuild critical infrastructure that could have been protected through proactive investment.

    Burton pointed to the 2017 Hurricane Maria, a storm that leveled much of Dominica’s critical infrastructure, as a stark lesson for global climate action. The widespread destruction caused by that hurricane, she emphasized, proved that building adaptive capacity must happen long before a storm makes landfall. This means engineering more robust roads, constructing climate-resilient buildings, upgrading reliable water systems, reinforcing health facilities, and strengthening public institutions to withstand extreme weather events. “The best time to build resilience is before disaster. The best time to finance transformation is before crisis,” Burton told assembled global leaders during her address.

    To make this proactive shift possible, Burton laid out three core demands for the international financial system. First, she pushed for far broader access to low-interest concessional loans and outright grants earmarked specifically for climate adaptation projects in vulnerable nations. Second, she called for mandatory, strong disaster relief clauses to be embedded in all sovereign debt agreements, allowing countries to pause debt repayments in the aftermath of climate catastrophes. Third, she advocated for pre-positioned climate financing that can be disbursed rapidly immediately after a disaster strikes, cutting down on critical response time.

    Burton also threw her support behind a longstanding push from small island states to incorporate multidimensional vulnerability metrics into global development finance decision-making. Traditional criteria for accessing favorable financing, she argued, routinely fail to account for the disproportionate climate risks that small island developing states face, locking many out of the support they need to build resilience.

    Rejecting the framing of vulnerable states as passive victims, Burton made clear that Dominica is not seeking pity at the United Nations. Instead, the country is positioning itself as an active partner in global climate transformation. “Dominica does not come to the United Nations asking to be treated as a victim of vulnerability. We come asking to be recognised as a partner in transformation,” she said.

    The Dominican president stressed that proactive measures to prevent the destruction of core public assets—from schools and hospitals to drinking water systems—should be classified and treated as productive investments in long-term development, rather than discretionary climate spending. To back up her call for a new approach, Burton confirmed that Dominica stands ready to serve as a proof of concept, demonstrating the tangible results that a resilience-centered climate financing model can deliver for vulnerable nations.

  • CAF approves US$200,000 grant to strengthen disaster-resilient housing in Caribbean

    CAF approves US$200,000 grant to strengthen disaster-resilient housing in Caribbean

    Across the Caribbean, recurring climate-driven and geophysical disasters—including hurricanes, flash floods, deadly landslides, and earthquakes—have repeatedly exposed vulnerabilities in residential infrastructure, destroying homes, erasing decades of development progress, and threatening the lives and livelihoods of regional communities. To address this growing risk, CAF – Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean has greenlit a $200,000 technical assistance grant to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) for a new 18-month Regional Resilient Residential Construction and Reconstruction Project.

    This new initiative builds on the foundation of CDEMA’s long-running Safer Building Programme, shifting focus from post-disaster recovery to proactive pre-disaster preparedness by targeting the people and institutions that shape residential construction standards across the region. Unlike traditional disaster response efforts that center on rebuilding after damage occurs, the project prioritizes capacity building for key stakeholders: builders, skilled artisans, general contractors, and regional Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions.

    Under the project framework, frontline construction workers will receive hands-on training in modern hazard-resilient building techniques. TVET institutions will also receive targeted support to integrate the official Regional Code of Practice for Residential Construction into their core training curricula, ensuring that future generations of construction professionals enter the workforce with disaster-resilient skills. Beyond industry training, the initiative will run public and institutional outreach campaigns to raise awareness of resilient building standards among homeowners, lending institutions, policymakers, and community stakeholders, with the goal of driving widespread adoption of safer construction practices across the region.

    Dr. Stacy Richards-Kennedy, CAF’s Regional Manager for the Caribbean and the bank’s lead representative in Barbados, emphasized that proactive investment in pre-disaster resilience delivers far greater impact than post-disaster reconstruction. “Rebuilding after a disaster will always be necessary, but preparing before one strikes is where we can make the greatest difference. Resilience begins with the way residential infrastructure is designed and built,” Dr. Richards-Kennedy noted. She added that the project embodies CAF’s broader commitment to the Caribbean: beyond financing large-scale resilient infrastructure, the bank prioritizes investing in knowledge, technical capacity, and cultural change to build a robust regional culture of disaster preparedness.

    CDEMA Executive Director Elizabeth Riley echoed this perspective, noting that decades of disaster response experience have made clear that resilience is rooted in pre-event decision-making, not post-event recovery. “Every disaster reminds us that resilience is not built in the aftermath of an event, but through the decisions we make before it occurs. Strengthening the way our homes and communities are designed and built is therefore a critical investment in protecting lives, livelihoods and our development gains,” Riley explained. She added that the partnership with CAF will not only improve construction practices and build technical capacity across the region but also strengthen broader disaster preparedness efforts that protect hard-won development gains for Caribbean communities.

    Ultimately, the project forms a key part of regional efforts to reduce disaster risk, with safer residential construction acting as a foundational pillar for protecting lives, property, and community well-being across the hazard-prone Caribbean.