分类： business

Nearly two years from now, the proposed merger between telecommunications providers BTL and Speednet has been called off entirely, but the fallout from the failed acquisition could still leave BTL facing significant market challenges, according to former Public Utilities Commission (PUC) chairman John Avery.

Avery, who opposed the planned acquisition from its inception, calling it legally invalid, argues that a lingering regulatory measure imposed amid the merger review has put the incumbent telecommunications provider in a precarious competitive position. The regulatory order, known as a statutory instrument (SI), freezes all of BTL’s existing rates for a three-year period, leaving the company unable to adjust its pricing even as competitors move to capture market share.

PUC has long classified BTL as a dominant market provider, a designation that remains in place even after the collapse of the Speednet deal. Under that status, the company already faces heightened regulatory scrutiny of all pricing decisions, but the three-year rate freeze adds an extra layer of constraint that runs counter to existing telecommunications law, Avery says.

“The law is clear that dominant providers retain the ability to adjust their rates to match changing market conditions, but this SI overrides that provision by locking prices in place for three years,” Avery explained in an interview transcript from an evening television news broadcast. “If rival licensed providers choose to cut their prices to attract new customers, BTL cannot respond in kind. That leaves the company completely unable to defend its existing customer base if competitors decide to exploit this vulnerability.”

Beyond the inability to match competitor pricing, the rate freeze also slows BTL’s ability to respond to broader market shifts. Any new service package, pricing plan or updated offering the company wants to roll out must first go through a full PUC approval process, delaying the company’s ability to adapt to changing consumer demand and industry trends.

Avery says the regulatory measure was never justified, even when the acquisition was still under consideration. The designation of BTL as a dominant provider and subsequent rate freeze was only implemented to ease public fears that the merged company would act as a monopoly and engage in predatory price gouging, he argues. Now that the merger has been canceled, the unnecessary rate restriction violates existing telecommunications legislation and should be withdrawn immediately.

Avery is calling on BTL to lobby PUC leadership to repeal the SI, replacing the rigid three-year freeze with a standard, formula-based rate review framework that aligns with existing law and supports healthy market competition. “Regulators should not be setting static prices in this market,” he noted. “The law makes clear that market forces should drive pricing, with appropriate oversight for dominant providers – not arbitrary freezes that distort competition.”

As of August 2026, all Belizean electricity customers except low-income social rate users will see a new variable charge line item on their monthly bills from Belize Electricity (BEL), following approval from the nation’s Public Utilities Commission (PUC). The new mechanism, called the Cost of Power Adjustment (COPA), is being rolled out under an innovative regulatory sandbox framework, with an initial charge set at 1.5 cents per kilowatt-hour for the first billing cycle. The charge was introduced to address a growing gap between the regulated base electricity rate and actual power generation costs, which BEL reports ran 4.3 cents per kWh higher than the approved reference price over the preceding six months. To soften the immediate impact on household budgets already strained by high living costs nationwide, the PUC has capped any monthly rate increase at 1.5 cents per kWh, preventing what would have been a far steeper jump in consumer bills this cycle. Under the terms of the new framework, the COPA adjustment is not fixed: each month, it will be recalculated to reflect actual changes in global fuel costs, supply chain expenses, and other variable inputs that impact power generation pricing. Depending on market conditions, the adjustment could increase, decrease, be eliminated entirely, or even result in a credit issued to consumers, pending formal approval from the PUC each billing cycle. BEL officials emphasize that the new monthly adjustment system is designed to serve two core goals: maintaining the utility’s long-term financial stability while shielding consumers from the far more disruptive sudden large price hikes that come from delaying cost adjustments over multiple years. The company also added that the COPA charge is exempt from the national Goods and Services Tax, and low-income households enrolled in the social rate program will not be subject to the new charge at all. Despite these safeguards, the new pricing model has left many ordinary Belizean consumers with pressing concerns. With the national economy already facing high living costs, households are questioning what the new monthly variable charge will mean for their long-term energy budgets, and whether the system will deliver on promises of greater transparency or simply normalize constant, unpredictable increases to a core household expense. The rollout of COPA has sparked broader public debate: is this a pragmatic, flexible approach to managing volatile energy costs that protects both the stability of Belize’s power grid and consumers from sudden shock, or is it another unplanned financial burden that shifts market risk directly onto the shoulders of ordinary households already struggling to make ends meet? This report is a transcribed excerpt from an evening television newscast, with Kriol language portions transcribed per standard spelling conventions.

In its latest sovereign credit evaluation published on August 19, 2026, S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Belize’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at B-/B while delivering a pointed assessment of the country’s political and fiscal trajectory. The ratings agency projects that the ruling People’s United Party (PUP), which has held national office since 2020 and secured a legislative supermajority in 2025’s general election, will retain power through the next scheduled national vote in 2030. S&P analysts note that the PUP’s dominant political position was built against a backdrop of a deeply fragmented opposition, and the upcoming 2027 municipal polls could even strengthen the party’s hold on governance across the country.

Despite the clear popular mandate and unchallenged political control the PUP holds, S&P has raised significant concerns over the slow pace of critical fiscal reforms that the agency says are necessary to shore up Belize’s long-term financial stability. Among the highest-priority unimplemented policy changes is the long-planned overhaul of the Pension Plan for Public Officials, a reform designed to reduce unsustainable long-term strain on the country’s national budget. S&P reports that the initiative has not moved forward in any meaningful way to date.

Two other core fiscal measures also remain stalled, per the ratings report: the establishment of a dedicated sinking fund to cover future amortization payments for Belize’s Blue Bonds, and the enactment of a formal fiscal responsibility law to provide a stable framework for long-term public financial management.

S&P stresses that repeated policy delays across successive Belizean administrations — not only the current PUP government — have created persistent headwinds for the country’s ability to maintain sustainable debt servicing. Belize has faced five sovereign debt defaults over the last 20 years, a historical pattern that continues to limit the country’s access to affordable external commercial financing, the agency added.

The report does acknowledge that the current administration has taken limited positive steps to improve its fiscal standing. These include expanding and improving tax collection through the rollout of mandatory electronic invoicing, and a plan to launch a Semi-Autonomous Revenue Authority by 2027 — a reform that was first approved by legislators back in 2022.

On August 19, 2026, S&P Global Ratings announced it would retain Belize’s B-/B sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, while issuing warnings about expanding fiscal and current account deficits over the coming two years. The rating agency linked the expected deficit expansion to ongoing volatility in global crude oil markets, which has pushed up the Central American nation’s import costs.

Alongside the main sovereign rating, S&P confirmed that Belize’s transfer and convertibility assessment will also hold steady at B-. The stable outlook is rooted in the agency’s projection that Belize will see moderate economic growth aligned with its long-term potential, and that even with mounting pressure from elevated oil prices, the country’s twin deficits will remain manageable.

For 2026, S&P forecasts real GDP growth of 2.0 percent, a slowdown compared to previous years driven primarily by cooling expansion in two key sectors: business process outsourcing (BPO) and tourism. The tourism sector, a cornerstone of Belize’s economy, is expected to soften in 2026 as higher oil prices drive up travel costs and reduce the number of overnight tourist stays. Even so, S&P notes potential upside on the horizon: new air routes launched by BermudAir and Air Canada are expected to improve Belize’s connectivity to North American and European markets, which could boost visitor numbers in coming years.

The BPO sector, which employs roughly 9 percent of Belize’s total workforce, faces a separate long-term challenge. S&P warns that the rapid global adoption of artificial intelligence is likely to automate many routine business functions that are currently handled by Belizean outsourcing providers, reducing global demand for these services over time.

On the fiscal front, Belize delivered a nearly balanced budget in 2025, posting a tiny surplus equal to 0.03 percent of GDP. That positive result came from moderate revenue growth and cuts to capital spending. But S&P projects that trend will reverse sharply in 2026, with the general government posting a deficit equal to 2.5 percent of GDP. The shift is driven by multiple factors: rising imported energy costs, a recent cut to gasoline excise taxes, government-mandated electricity rate caps, and growing public sector payroll expenses. Already, payroll and pension costs make up 41 percent of total government spending, and an additional 4.0 percent wage increase is scheduled to take effect in October 2026.

Net general government debt rose to 66 percent of GDP in 2025, up from 64.5 percent in 2024. S&P attributes the increase largely to domestic borrowing taken on after the nationalization of the country’s energy assets. Over the period through 2029, the rating agency expects net government debt to average roughly 67 percent of GDP. S&P also highlighted growing debt servicing costs, noting that the stepped-up coupon structure on Belize’s $364 million Blue Bond will reach its maximum rate of 6.04 percent in 2026. This change will push total debt servicing costs above 10 percent of total government revenue for the entire forecast period.

Belize’s current account deficit expanded to 2.8 percent of GDP in 2025, and S&P projects it will widen further to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2026. The widening deficit is driven by a growing trade gap caused by more expensive fuel imports, continued reliance on electricity imports, and softening tourism revenue. Through 2029, the current account deficit is expected to average 2.8 percent of GDP, and S&P projects it will be primarily financed by foreign direct investment targeted at tourism, real estate, and infrastructure projects.

Looking ahead, S&P outlined two potential paths for Belize’s rating over the next 12 to 18 months. The agency could downgrade the rating if external or domestic economic shocks weaken fiscal performance or restrict Belize’s access to official financing. On the other hand, an upgrade would be possible if the government delivers concrete policy commitments to strengthen fiscal results and sustain steady economic growth, or if external vulnerabilities moderate alongside clear evidence of policy progress.

Starting from August 2026, most electricity customers across Belize will face another increase in their monthly utility bills, after the nation’s Public Utilities Commission (PUC) gave final approval for a 1.5 cent per kilowatt-hour Cost of Power Adjustment (COPA) proposed by Belize Electricity Limited (BEL).

This latest rate adjustment is not a random one-off increase, but the first formal change rolled out under a groundbreaking new regulatory sandbox program designed by PUC. This experimental framework shifts the industry toward a more transparent, monthly-based system that tracks BEL’s real-time power generation and procurement costs, replacing the older static pricing model that often lagged behind actual market fluctuations.

According to statements from BEL, over the previous six months, the utility’s actual power costs have run 4.3 cents per kWh higher than the baseline reference cost that PUC previously approved. Under the new regulatory sandbox rules, however, monthly COPA adjustments — whether upward or downward — are capped at 1.5 cents per kWh. This cap prevents consumers from being hit with the full cumulative cost increase in a single billing cycle, spreading the extra cost out over multiple months to soften the financial blow.

The new surcharge will not apply to all customers: low-income households enrolled in the Social Rate program remain fully exempt from the COPA adjustment. Additionally, the extra charge is not subject to the country’s Goods and Services Tax, and will be listed as a separate line item on customer bills rather than being hidden in the base electricity rate, to improve billing transparency for consumers.

Unlike permanent base rate increases, future monthly COPA adjustments are not locked in as ongoing growth. Every month, BEL is required to submit fully verified financial and operational data to PUC, which will then re-evaluate the upcoming month’s adjustment based on the utility’s actual power costs. Depending on market conditions and procurement outcomes, future adjustments could range from additional small increases to decreases, a neutral zero adjustment, or even customer rebates if power costs drop below the reference baseline.

BEL has emphasized that the new monthly adjustment mechanism is designed to balance two key priorities: helping the utility recover the actual costs it incurs to purchase and supply power to customers across the country, while also shielding consumers from sudden, dramatic spikes in electricity prices that could disrupt household budgets. For August 2026, though, the immediate impact for non-Social Rate customers will be a clear extra cost of 1.5 cents added to every kilowatt-hour they consumed during the billing period.