The United Nations has issued a stark new warning that the world is drastically off track to meet its critical climate goals, with the 1.5°C warming threshold set for 2030 likely being passed a full decade earlier than previously projected if countries do not urgently ramp up their greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments. The latest UN Emissions Gap Report, released ahead of the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai, finds that current national climate pledges put the planet on track for 2.5°C to 2.9°C of warming by the end of the century — far above the 1.5°C target agreed under the Paris Agreement that scientists say is needed to avoid the worst irreversible climate impacts.
According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to keep 1.5°C within reach. Instead, current policies are projected to increase global emissions by almost 10% over the rest of the decade. The gap between what countries have promised to cut and what is actually required has barely narrowed over the past year, leaving the world in what the UN Secretary-General António Guterres called a “climate timeout.”
“Climate change is here, it is terrifying, and it is speeding up faster than many scientists predicted,” Guterres said in a foreword to the report. “Even if we temporarily breach the 1.5°C threshold, we need to show that we can bring temperatures back down by rapidly cutting emissions this decade. Every fraction of a degree matters, every year matters, every decision matters.”
The report also highlights that current finance commitments from developed nations to support developing countries with their climate transitions fall far short of what is needed. The $100 billion per year target promised by 2020 has still not been met, while estimates suggest developing economies will require more than $1 trillion per year by 2030 to fund both adaptation and mitigation efforts. In addition to funding gaps, the report calls for a dramatic phase-out of fossil fuels, a rapid scale-up of renewable energy deployment, and stronger policy frameworks to drive decarbonization across all major economies.
As world leaders prepare to gather for COP28 in late November, the report serves as a critical wake-up call. The UN climate chief Simon Stiello noted that the summit must deliver tangible progress on three key fronts: scaling up mitigation ambition, doubling adaptation finance, and moving forward on the new loss and damage fund agreed at last year’s COP27. “This report is not just a warning—it is a roadmap. We have the tools and knowledge to close the emissions gap, but we lack the political will and collective urgency to act,” Stiello said. “The window to keep 1.5°C alive is closing, but it is still open if we act now.”