As the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially kicks off on June 1, draws near, two leading U.S. meteorological institutions have released their first preliminary forecasts for 2026, with specific implications for hurricane-vulnerable Haiti.
The Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University (CSU) notes that the combined forces of a projected strong El Niño event and near-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures will create conditions that are far less conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes. In their inaugural 2026 forecast, the CSU team predicts 13 named storms will form across the Atlantic basin this season. Of these, 6 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, with just 2 reaching Category 3 intensity or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. These projected numbers mark a slight dip from the 30-year seasonal average, which stands at 14 named storms and 7 full hurricanes annually.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) echoed this outlook in its latest monthly climate update, confirming that there is roughly a 50% probability that the ongoing El Niño event will strengthen into a powerful event that will dominate atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic through hurricane season. The agency added that overall conditions across the basin, especially the Caribbean region where Haiti is located, are broadly unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.
Historical data supports the expectation that a strong El Niño will suppress hurricane activity. Past climate records show that standard El Niño events typically reduce overall accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a key metric measuring total seasonal cyclonic activity, by 32%. For so-called “Super El Niño” events, that reduction jumps to 58%, sharply cutting the likelihood of frequent or intense storm formation.
A second contributing factor to the projected below-average activity is the relatively cool sea surface temperatures recorded across large swathes of the Atlantic this year. A widespread cooling trend has been observed across the North Atlantic since mid-February 2026, with broad regions of the eastern Atlantic and key sections of the Atlantic’s main hurricane development zone registering water temperatures at or below long-term averages.
That said, forecasters note a conflicting signal in current conditions: much of the western Atlantic remains significantly warmer than the 30-year average, creating a mixed picture between tropical and subtropical zones of the basin. In recent hurricane seasons, widespread warm Atlantic waters have offset the storm-suppressing effects of El Niño, leading to more active seasons than initially predicted. As of early April 2026, however, overall basin-wide conditions do not point to a sharp uptick in significant tropical cyclone activity before the season gets underway.









