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The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded its probability forecast for a developing tropical system in the far eastern Atlantic, now estimating a 70% chance that the disturbance will strengthen into either a tropical depression or a named tropical storm. In its official 8 a.m. public update issued Thursday, forecasters outlined that the broad low-pressure system, identified by the designation AL90, is currently positioned several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. At present, the system generates a wide, disorganized spread of showers and convective thunderstorm activity across the surrounding region.

Per NHC forecasting models, AL90 is projected to track northwestward, eventually shifting to a more northward path over the coming days. This trajectory will bring the system close enough to the Cabo Verde Islands to bring unsettled weather to parts of the archipelago by Friday. The 48-hour and seven-day formation probabilities for the system both sit at 70%, marking a 10 percentage point increase from the 60% odds published in the NHC’s 2 a.m. outlook earlier Thursday.

Despite the elevated chance of early formation, NHC forecasters note that unfavorable atmospheric conditions will halt the system’s strengthening by the weekend. Increasing wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere is expected to tear the system apart, limiting any further organized development after that point. While the system is not expected to last long, local authorities and residents across the Cabo Verde Islands have been urged to stay updated on the latest forecasts. The disturbance is projected to bring gusty winds, intense downpours, and a heightened risk of flash flooding to portions of the island chain starting as early as Friday.

As of the latest Thursday update, AL90 remains far out in the eastern tropical Atlantic. The NHC’s current assessment confirms that there is no immediate threat to the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda, nor to any areas in the northeastern Caribbean. Forecasters will continue to issue regular updates and track the system’s movement and development closely as it progresses across the Atlantic basin.

Against a backdrop of accelerating climate change and growing global pressure to end fossil fuel dependency, a landmark new partnership between U.K.-based energy innovator Octopus Energy and the government of Antigua and Barbuda has launched to reimagine the Caribbean nation’s energy future. Unveiled during the Global Citizen NOW: Impact Session held alongside New York Climate Week, the collaboration sets out to deliver a cleaner, more affordable, and far more resilient energy system for the country’s residents by leveraging cutting-edge smart renewable technology.

At the core of the joint initiative is a shared goal to cut Antigua and Barbuda’s longstanding reliance on costly imported fossil fuels, by integrating four key clean energy pillars: utility and residential solar power, utility-scale and distributed battery storage, widespread electric vehicle adoption, and flexible, intelligent demand management. What makes the partnership particularly distinct is Octopus Energy’s deep expertise in Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) — a groundbreaking smart energy system that networks decentralized clean energy assets, from rooftop solar panels and home battery banks to electric vehicles, to operate as a single coordinated energy resource that stabilizes grid stress and cuts consumer costs.

Octopus Energy already operates one of the world’s largest VPP networks, connecting and optimizing nearly 500,000 individual energy devices across its existing markets. The combined capacity of this network is roughly equivalent to the output of three full-sized nuclear power stations, demonstrating the scalable impact of the technology the firm will bring to the Caribbean.

For Antigua and Barbuda, this partnership is far more than an energy project: it is a critical step toward delivering the nation’s ambitious climate and energy targets. The country has committed to sourcing 86% of its total electricity from renewable sources and requiring all new car sales to be electric by 2030, goals that require targeted technical expertise and innovative partnership to achieve. As a small island developing state (SIDS), Antigua and Barbuda faces a unique dual crisis: it is on the front lines of climate change impacts including rising sea levels and more intense extreme weather, even as its economy and energy system remain hostage to volatile global fossil fuel markets that keep household energy costs artificially high. Expanding locally generated renewable energy directly addresses both challenges simultaneously, boosting energy security while cutting the country’s carbon footprint.

Gaston Browne, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, emphasized the stakes of the transition for his nation in remarks following the announcement. “For Small Island Developing States such as Antigua and Barbuda, the transition to renewable energy is both an environmental imperative and an economic necessity,” Browne said. “Our continued dependence on imported fossil fuels exposes our people and businesses to high and volatile energy costs, while climate change poses an existential threat to our development.”

He added that the collaboration with Octopus Energy opens the door to practical, integrated solutions that combine renewable generation, electric mobility, storage, and smart technology to deliver tangible benefits. “Antigua and Barbuda has set an ambitious course towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future. We welcome partnerships that bring innovation, investment and proven technology to help translate that ambition into measurable benefits for our citizens,” Browne said. “Our objective is clear: to build a modern, resilient and increasingly renewable energy system that delivers cleaner and more affordable power while demonstrating that small island states can lead the global energy transition.”

The partnership will hit its first milestone well ahead of broader energy planning, with Octopus Energy’s electric vehicle division set to supply a fleet of electric vehicles for the 2026 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), which Antigua and Barbuda will host in its capital St. John’s from 1–4 November that year. The event will serve as a live demonstration of the country’s commitment to electric mobility and clean energy for international audiences.

Zoisa North-Bond, CEO of Octopus Energy Generation, noted that the collaboration fills a critical gap for climate-vulnerable small island nations that have long been overlooked in the global clean energy transition. “By partnering with Antigua and Barbuda, we’re exploring how clean power and technology can help address the unique energy challenges small islands face,” North-Bond said. “Our goal is simple: people everywhere should benefit from the lower costs that renewables and smart tech offers. Together, we hope to build an implementable plan to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and build a more resilient energy system.”

Global Citizen, which organized the impact session that brought the two parties together, hailed the partnership as a model for how cross-sector collaboration can deliver tangible progress for SIDS. Michael Sheldrick, Co-Founder and Chief Policy, Impact and Government Relations Officer at Global Citizen, said small island states should never be forced to choose between affordable energy for their residents and climate resilience. “This partnership demonstrates the practical coalition needed to deliver both: government leadership, Octopus Energy’s technology and delivery expertise, and Global Citizen’s ability to convene partners and mobilize action,” Sheldrick said. “Beginning with electric mobility at CHOGM and building towards a smarter, locally powered energy system, Antigua and Barbuda can create a model with relevance far beyond its shores.”

The Antigua and Barbuda partnership is part of Octopus Energy Generation’s broader global expansion strategy, which increasingly prioritizes expanding renewable energy access, attracting clean energy investment, and unlocking economic opportunity in emerging and developing markets. Through the firm’s Power Africa Initiative, Octopus has set a target to catalyze $450 million in new clean energy investment across the African continent. The company is also currently developing Sierra Leone’s first ever utility-scale wind farm on climate-vulnerable Sherbro Island, in partnership with actor and activist Idris Elba’s Elba Hope Foundation. The project will bring reliable, affordable clean power to thousands of currently underserved households and local businesses.