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Global crude oil markets swung sharply upward on Monday, with both benchmark contracts jumping more than 7% to push prices above $102 per barrel, after the United States announced it would launch a full naval blockade of commercial shipping to and from Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. The escalation comes after weeks of high-stakes negotiations between Washington and Tehran failed to produce a lasting ceasefire agreement, collapsing a fragile two-week truce and raising fears of wider regional conflict.

Following a minor pullback in the previous trading session, Brent crude futures climbed $7.32, or 7.7%, to settle at $102.52 per barrel on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures followed a similar trajectory, rising $7.65, or 7.9%, to hit $104.22 per barrel.

In a Sunday statement, former U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. Navy would move forward with the blockade, marking a major escalation of tensions after marathon talks with Iran broke down. He acknowledged that elevated oil and gasoline prices would likely persist through November’s U.S. midterm elections, a rare admission of the political ramifications of his administration’s decision to launch airstrikes against Iran six weeks prior.

Erik Meyersson, a senior analyst at Swedish bank SEB, noted that the announced blockade confirms that the core ceasefire condition, as interpreted by the U.S. — the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — is unachievable for the foreseeable future.

U.S. Central Command (Centcom) later clarified the scope of the operation in a post on X, stating that starting Monday, U.S. forces will intercept all commercial vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports, including all Iranian facilities along the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The operation will apply equally to vessels of all nationalities, Centcom added, while emphasizing that freedom of navigation for ships traveling to and from non-Iranian ports through the strait will remain unimpeded.

Iran has responded with sharp condemnation and threats of retaliation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Sunday that any military vessel approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be treated as a ceasefire violation and met with forceful action. Iranian military officials have called the planned U.S. blockade, which is set to take place in international waters, an illegal act of piracy, and warned that no Gulf region ports will remain safe if Iranian shipping and facilities are targeted.

The escalating geopolitical turmoil has already rattled global energy markets, even as OPEC has downgraded its 2024 second-quarter global oil demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day, citing the economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict. In a monthly report published Monday on its official website, OPEC also reported that combined oil production from OPEC+ member nations averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, a 7.7 million barrel per day drop from the previous month. Physical crude oil prices are already trading at a steep premium to futures contracts, with some grades reaching record highs near $150 per barrel amid acute supply fears.

Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned that if Trump follows through on his threat with a full naval deployment, the gap between paper futures markets and tight physical supply could close rapidly, driving prices even higher. Shipping data from LSEG shows that most commercial carriers are already diverting away from the Strait of Hormuz to avoid potential disruption, though three fully loaded supertankers successfully transited the waterway on Saturday, marking the first large crude carriers to exit the Gulf since the partial ceasefire took effect the previous week.

Separately, Saudi Arabia announced Sunday that it has fully restored oil pumping capacity along its critical East-West Pipeline to 7 million barrels per day, after the country’s energy infrastructure suffered damage in attacks amid the conflict with Iran.

The U.S. blockade announcement has injected a new wave of uncertainty into already jittery global oil markets, directly driving the sharp price rally seen on Monday. As the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of all global oil trade, any sustained disruption to shipping through the waterway translates immediately to higher energy costs for consumers and businesses worldwide.

Elevated oil prices add intense pressure to household budgets and corporate bottom lines, fueling already sticky global inflation and threatening to slow projected economic growth. Net oil-importing nations are particularly vulnerable to this shock, and the price spike could exacerbate existing political tensions in vulnerable economies.

OPEC’s downward revision to global demand forecasts underscores the deep fragility of current market conditions, driven by conflict-related uncertainty. At the same time, the sharp premium on physical crude points to an already tight market and widespread fear of imminent supply shortages.

The standoff has also significantly ramped up geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, with the risk of open military conflict rising sharply. Iran’s retaliatory threats paired with the U.S.’s planned blockade have put global energy security at heightened risk. Over the longer term, sustained high oil prices may shift government policy priorities, accelerating investments in alternative energy sources while also increasing domestic political pressure on leaders to rein in energy costs for consumers.