In the wake of widespread public pushback following last week’s release of a report showing a marginal uptick in Belize’s national consumer confidence, the Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) has stepped forward to demystify the methodology behind the closely watched economic indicator and address public misperceptions. News Five recently sat down with Jacqueline Sabal, who heads the Economic Statistics Department at SIB, to break down how the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is calculated and what the latest July data actually signals for Belize’s economy.
Sabal walked through the core design of the monthly index, which draws its data from a structured national telephone survey distributed across every district in Belize. The sampling framework is carefully calibrated to reflect the population size of each district, ensuring the results are representative of the full range of consumer sentiment across the country. The CCI tracks three distinct components of public perception: how households assess their current financial standing compared to 12 months prior, what consumers anticipate for their financial outlook over the coming year, and whether the public believes current conditions are favorable for making large-ticket purchases such as homes, vehicles, or major household furniture.
“Our questions center on two time horizons: current conditions, which asks respondents to compare their household finances and overall economic conditions today to where they were a year ago, and future expectations, which asks whether they anticipate conditions will improve, stagnate, or worsen over the next 12 months,” Sabal explained. “We also add a targeted question about willingness to make major purchases, which gives us insight into consumers’ long-term spending plans.”
A key point Sabal emphasized is that the CCI is not a hard, objective measure of actual economic output or performance. Instead, it is a perception-based study designed to forecast future consumer spending, one of the largest drivers of overall economic activity. “This index doesn’t measure the economy itself—it measures how people feel about the economy,” she noted. “If consumers are broadly optimistic, we can reasonably expect they will increase their spending, which will in turn boost overall economic activity across the country. If sentiment leans pessimistic, on the other hand, consumers are more likely to tighten their belts and increase savings, leading to slower economic growth.”
To address the root of public frustration over the recent report, Sabal directly clarified the state of Belizean consumer confidence: while the July reading did mark a small increase, the overall index remains firmly in pessimistic territory. The CCI uses 50 as a baseline threshold: any reading above 50 signals broad optimism among consumers, while scores below 50 reflect overall pessimism. The July index came in at 42.6, still well below the 50 benchmark that separates positive and negative sentiment.
Sabal added that the July uptick was the first monthly increase in the CCI recorded since the beginning of 2026, following a steady, months-long downward trend in consumer confidence. Even with this small improvement, however, she warned that one month of positive movement is not enough to confirm a lasting shift in consumer sentiment. “A single monthly increase doesn’t tell us much about the direction of the trend,” Sabal explained. “To confirm that this slight uptick represents a genuine, sustained change in how Belizeans feel about the economy, we need multiple months of consistent data. We have to see if the index will continue to climb in the coming months, or if it will resume its downward trajectory or hold steady. For 2026 as a whole, the broader trend has still been downward.”
The clarification from SIB comes after the initial report of rising consumer confidence sparked disbelief and backlash among Belizeans, many of whom questioned how the index could show improvement amid ongoing economic challenges facing the country. SIB’s breakdown aims to create greater transparency around how the index is compiled, helping the public better interpret the monthly economic indicator.