BRIDGETOWN, Barbados – The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), headquartered in Barbados, has issued a significant weather advisory warning of severe meteorological events across the region. According to their latest three-month forecast covering February through April, unusually warm temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean will trigger extreme weather patterns commencing as early as April.
The forecast indicates heightened risks for southern Belize, the Guianas, the Greater Antilles, and mountainous regions of the Lesser Antilles. These areas face potentially catastrophic flooding, flash floods, and cascading environmental hazards with impacts expected to intensify after March. The period marks the annual peak of the Caribbean Dry Season in March and transitions into the region’s heat season.
Simultaneously, the abnormal ocean warmth will create contradictory conditions elsewhere. The ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao) and parts of the Lesser Antilles will experience increasingly frequent short dry spells. Temperature patterns will shift dramatically from comfortable February conditions to episodes of significant heat discomfort by March, particularly affecting inland areas of Belize, the Guianas, and Trinidad.
The report highlights concerning drought developments. While rainfall totals from February to April are projected to be normal or above average in the Bahamas, Barbados, Grand Cayman, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Windward Islands, this precipitation will prove insufficient to alleviate long-term drought impacts. The ABC Islands, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Windward Islands continue to suffer from substantial rainfall deficits dating back to the 2023 Wet Season.
CariCOF identifies specific drought developments: short-term drought is currently evolving in northern Haiti, St. Kitts, and St. Lucia, with potential development in the northwestern Bahamas, northern Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barts. More critically, long-term drought has been classified as imminent in the ABC Islands, Grenada, and St. Lucia, while already evolving in Dominica, Martinique, and St. Kitts.









