分类: science

  • Efforts to protect Giant River Otters in Rupununi areas paying off

    Efforts to protect Giant River Otters in Rupununi areas paying off

    Marking World Otter Day 2026, conservation leaders gathered for a panel discussion hosted jointly by Guyana’s EMC Foundation and the Protected Areas Trust (PAT) on May 29, where they shared promising updates on efforts to protect the endangered giant river otter across the Rupununi region of southern Guyana.

    The EMC Foundation reported that joint monitoring projects carried out in two critical conservation landscapes – the Kanuku Mountains Protected Area and the Karanambu preserve – have already established comprehensive baseline population data for the species. Early observations confirm that stable otter groups now occupy multiple river systems across the study area, a major milestone for long-term recovery efforts. A large part of this progress is credited to the on-the-ground work of trained local community rangers and volunteer citizen scientists, who not only map otter distribution across remote waterways but also identify growing threats to the species’ survival. Chief among these threats are unregulated illegal gold mining operations, which contaminate freshwater habitats with mercury, disrupt aquatic food chains, and destroy critical wetland ecosystems.

    Globally classified as an Endangered species by conservation authorities, the giant river otter holds unique ecological importance across the Amazon and Guiana Shield. As a top predator in river and wetland systems, the species acts as a key indicator of overall freshwater ecosystem health. Guyana’s vast stretches of intact old-growth forest, expansive untouched wetlands, and interconnected undamaged river networks have made the country one of the last remaining strongholds for the vulnerable species.

    During the panel discussion, stakeholders outlined the multifaceted strategy needed to secure the giant river otter’s long-term future in Guyana. Alona Sankar, Commissioner of the Guyana Wildlife Conservation and Management Commission (GWCMC), stressed that policy progress must be paired with stronger enforcement. “What we need to strengthen is our monitoring and enforcement capability to ensure that persons are actually abiding by what the law requires. Now we want to increase our giant otter populations, so if you’re affecting the viability of the species, that is very negative,” Sankar said, calling for bolstered protections, expanded monitoring infrastructure, and consistent regulatory enforcement to safeguard the species and Guyana’s broader wildlife resources.

    Melanie McTurk, Managing Director of Karanambu Lodge, highlighted the persistent gaps in scientific understanding that still hamper conservation work. “Many people don’t realise that giant otters are one of the most understudied species, to the point where we don’t even know if they exist in some areas,” McTurk explained. She noted that this knowledge gap creates a critical opportunity for new research, including genetic studies of fragmented populations, to better understand how human activity impacts distinct otter groups and support more targeted conservation planning.

    Dr. Deirdre Jafferally, a Community-Based Natural Resource Management Specialist, emphasized that lasting conservation depends on centering local leadership and traditional ecological knowledge. She pointed to successful community-led efforts to rescue and care for abandoned or injured giant river otter pups, which have already supported species recovery and helped otters return to regions where they had not been seen for decades. “Citizen science is an important part of that, as well as education and awareness. Educating people is important, getting them involved, not just those who already know and see and want to be involved in established forums,” Dr. Jafferally said.

    Today, giant river otter conservation in Guyana relies on an unprecedented coordinated model that brings together Indigenous and local communities, government regulatory agencies, non-profit conservation organizations, academic researchers, and private sector partners. This cross-sector collaboration has already delivered tangible, on-the-ground results: community-led biodiversity monitoring systems have strengthened local governance of natural resources, and adaptive fishing management plans, designed to account for otter habitat needs, have supported recovery of both fish populations and otter territories.

    Sarah Singh, speaking for the EMC Foundation, outlined the organization’s ongoing outreach work in the Mahaica Watershed through the Giant River Otter Education and Conservation Programme, launched in October 2025. Split into two core components – Research and Monitoring, and Education and Awareness – the initiative partners with local environmental clubs along the Mahaica River and leverages social media to reach broader audiences with science-based conservation messaging.

    Founded by Shyam Nokta, recipient of the 2022 Anthony N Sabga Award for Entrepreneurship, the EMC Foundation works across Guyana to expand environmental education and awareness, build networks of conservation-focused stakeholders, and create opportunities for Guyanese to connect with the country’s extraordinary natural biodiversity. The Protected Areas Trust, the EMC Foundation’s partner for the panel discussion, was established to provide sustained flexible funding for effective management and protection of Guyana’s protected area network, supporting long-term biodiversity conservation, ecosystem stewardship, research and community engagement to safeguard the country’s natural heritage for future generations.

  • Mathematicians say ‘don’t believe hype’ on AI capabilities

    Mathematicians say ‘don’t believe hype’ on AI capabilities

    In a collective rebuke of growing commercial overstatement of artificial intelligence’s capabilities in pure mathematics, more than 150 mathematicians from leading academic institutions across Europe, Japan, the United States and other regions have put their names to a public statement calling on the global mathematics community to push back against the trend of AI developers leveraging the discipline to inflate their products’ reputations.

    The statement, dubbed the Leiden Declaration, arrives amid a wave of aggressive claims from major AI corporations about their systems’ supposed breakthroughs in mathematics — including supposed solutions to long-unresolved open problems in the field and strong performances in high-level competitive mathematics challenges. The signatories specifically urge governments and research funders not to fall for the overblown marketing surrounding AI’s current mathematical competencies.

    Ulrike Tillmann, vice-president of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), offered her public backing for the declaration, noting that while AI has unlocked intriguing new opportunities for mathematical inquiry, the risks and ethical questions it introduces demand rigorous, critical examination. “The future of mathematical research must be guided by human judgment, fair and transparent practices, and the shared values of the global mathematical community, Tillmann emphasized in her endorsement.

    The declaration itself calls out the core conflict of interest driving the current hype: AI developers operate under intense commercial pressure to overstate what their tools can do, as hundreds of billions of dollars in venture capital and public investment hang in the balance. Unlike peer-reviewed mathematical research, which advances at a deliberate, verification-focused pace, AI development and publicity is driven by market timelines. This leads to misleading framing, the declaration argues, where narrow performance on specific mathematical tasks is incorrectly presented as proof of general reasoning ability in commercial AI models.

    Michael Harris, a Columbia University professor and co-author of the declaration, explained the high-stakes dynamic at play to AFP. “There is a competition to the death on the part of the main labs… they are trying, using mathematics… to attract investment so that each of them will be left standing, Harris said. This scramble for funding comes as the AI industry is in a period of major market expansion: in recent weeks, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which owns AI developer xAI, and AI startup Anthropic have both moved forward with plans for initial public offerings, with industry leader OpenAI widely expected to follow suit shortly.

    The declaration also pushes back against recent high-profile endorsements of AI’s research potential from leading mathematicians. Just one week before the declaration’s release, OpenAI shared a social media video featuring Terence Tao, a UCLA professor and former Fields Medal winner — the highest honor in pure mathematics — praising the company’s AI tools for their ability to support mathematical research. Harris acknowledged Tao’s immense contributions to the global mathematics community but argued that it is unhealthy for the field to consistently hold up a single mathematician as the official voice endorsing commercial AI tools.

    Beyond the problem of co-opting mathematics for commercial marketing, the signatories outline a host of deeper risks to the discipline itself. AI systems can generate logically plausible but fundamentally incorrect mathematical proofs that are extremely difficult for human researchers to verify, they note. The technology also erodes clear attribution for the foundational human research that AI models are built on.

    Longer-term harms to research culture are also a major concern: widespread adoption of AI in mathematics could push more researchers to chase trendy, AI-aligned problems at the expense of exploring less hyped but equally important lines of inquiry. It could also weaken traditional peer review systems and reorient academic research to serve the priorities of commercial AI developers, rather than the open, self-directed inquiry that has long defined university-based mathematics.

    The declaration also highlights broader societal harms tied to unregulated AI development, including risks of weaponization for warfare, expansion of mass surveillance, political interference, and increased environmental damage from energy-intensive AI model training. In closing, the statement urges all practicing mathematicians to carefully assess the ethical implications of any AI-related work they take on, and to step away from projects that cause undue harm.

  • Nevis makes history with first Caribbean space life sciences experiment launch, Gov’t says

    Nevis makes history with first Caribbean space life sciences experiment launch, Gov’t says

    CHARLESTOWN, Nevis — A small Caribbean island nation has entered the global space research landscape with a groundbreaking achievement: the successful deployment of the first space life sciences experiment originating from the entire Caribbean region. This milestone marks a defining moment for science, education, and cross-border innovation in the Federation of St Kitts and Nevis, placing the country alongside a expanding cohort of nations advancing international space exploration.

    The experiment lifted off on May 31, 2026, as part of the SSC SubOrbital Express SIX-5/M17 mission, launching from Esrange Space Center in Kiruna, Sweden. The historic project was brought to fruition through a groundbreaking multilateral collaborative partnership, bringing together Nevis’ Ministry of Education, the University of Zurich (UZH), and the Center for Space and Aviation Switzerland and Liechtenstein (CSA).

    In an official statement following the launch, the government of St Kitts and Nevis emphasized that the mission carries historic significance far beyond Nevis’ borders. For the entire Caribbean, it proves that small island developing states are fully capable of making meaningful contributions to cutting-edge scientific inquiry and global technological progress.

    At its core, the experiment is designed to address a longstanding gap in space biology research: understanding how altered gravitational conditions alter the behavior of human immune cells. Researchers will analyze how both microgravity, the near-weightless environment of space, and hypergravity, an environment with greater gravitational pull than Earth, impact gene expression and core cellular functions. Any insights generated from the mission are expected to directly inform global research into protecting human health during long-duration spaceflight, a critical area of study as nations plan deeper exploration missions beyond low-Earth orbit.

    A core defining feature of the initiative is its focus on building local scientific capacity, rather than relying solely on external researchers. Four experienced science educators from Nevis were selected to participate directly in the project, working side-by-side with leading international space scientists to develop the experiment’s design and support its implementation. This opportunity gave the local educators first-hand, practical experience in space research and advanced scientific research techniques that they can bring back to their classrooms.

    Government officials explained that the collaboration has already delivered lasting benefits to education and research infrastructure across the federation. Local teachers and students have gained unprecedented access to real-world, global scientific research practices, while new purpose-built laboratory facilities and expanded research capabilities have been established locally. The initiative has also transformed STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education across Nevis by creating tangible, direct connections between standard classroom learning and high-profile global scientific exploration.

    This mission, officials noted, showcases the transformative impact of strategic international academic and government partnerships, while highlighting the untapped potential of Nevisian educators and students to contribute to cutting-edge scientific innovation on the global stage.

    As researchers begin the process of collecting and analyzing data from the experiment, educators and students across Nevis will continue to participate in every step of the research process. The findings generated will not only advance global understanding of human biology in altered gravitational environments, but also serve as a powerful inspiration to cultivate the next generation of scientists, engineers, and innovators across the entire Caribbean region.

  • Meteor explodes over US with blast equivalent to 300 tonnes of TNT

    Meteor explodes over US with blast equivalent to 300 tonnes of TNT

    A rogue meteor barreling toward Earth broke apart in the upper atmosphere over the northeastern United States on Saturday, triggering shockwaves loud enough to rattle homes and leave local residents unsettled, NASA has confirmed. The explosive disintegration of the extraterrestrial object occurred at 2:06 p.m. local time, with the fireball fragmenting over a cross-border region spanning northeastern Massachusetts and southeastern New Hampshire, according to agency representative Jennifer Dooren, NASA’s Deputy News Chief, in an official comment to AFP.

    In a key clarification, Dooren emphasized the incoming object was a fully natural cosmic body unrelated to any ongoing annual meteor showers. It was not, she confirmed, leftover debris from an out-of-date satellite or discarded human-made space hardware re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. Scientists calculated the total energy released during the meteor’s breakup to match the detonation of roughly 300 tonnes of TNT — the force behind the deep, resonant booms reported across a wide swath of the region.

    At the moment it shattered, the meteor was moving at a blistering speed of more than 75,000 miles per hour (over 120,000 kilometers per hour), and was cruising at an altitude of approximately 40 miles above Earth’s surface. The unexpected loud blasts triggered widespread alarm among local communities, with hundreds of social media users sharing accounts of the noise strong enough to shake the foundations and windows of residential buildings.

    The Saturday event draws a sharp contrast to one of the most damaging meteor events in recent history. Back in 2013, a far larger house-sized fireball exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, at an altitude of just 14 miles. That blast packed a force equivalent to 440,000 tonnes of TNT, shattered windows across a 200-square-mile area, and left more than 1,600 people injured, most hurt by flying broken glass. Unlike the 2013 incident, the US event caused no reported injuries or structural damage due to its higher altitude and far smaller size.

  • Antiguan Keondre Herbert Awarded Prestigious National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship

    Antiguan Keondre Herbert Awarded Prestigious National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship

    In a remarkable achievement that highlights the global reach of early-career scientific talent, Antiguan biomedical engineering scholar Keondre Herbert has earned a spot in the U.S. National Science Foundation’s highly competitive Graduate Research Fellowship Program – one of the most coveted honors for emerging graduate researchers in science and engineering fields across the nation.

    This year’s selection process drew more than 14,000 applicants from across the United States, with only 2,500 top candidates advancing to receive the award. Beyond the national recognition that comes with this honor, the fellowship provides three full years of financial support to fuel promising early-career researchers as they pursue advanced graduate work.

    Herbert, who completed his undergraduate degree in Biomedical Engineering with a specialized neuroengineering concentration at Columbia University in 2024, cut his research teeth working in Dr. Barclay Morrison’s campus laboratory, where he investigated the underlying biological mechanisms that drive damage from traumatic brain injury. Following his graduation, he took on a role as a research associate at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, working in the lab of Dr. Peter Rudebeck. There, his current research leverages macaque electrophysiology and advanced neuroimaging to explore how deep brain stimulation can be adapted to treat common, debilitating psychiatric conditions, including obsessive-compulsive disorder and major depressive disorder.

    This coming fall, Herbert will move to Baltimore to begin his doctoral studies in Biomedical Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, where he will continue building his research portfolio focused on translational neuroengineering. His NSF fellowship will provide critical financial backing for his PhD work, which centers on advancing clinical neuromodulation therapies. Herbert’s long-term research goals include deepening scientific understanding of how these treatments alter brain function, and refining the technologies to make them more effective and widely accessible to patients who need them.

    The NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program is designed to identify and uplift graduate students who show extraordinary potential to make transformative contributions to scientific research. Applicants are evaluated on two core criteria: their demonstrated intellectual merit, and their existing contributions to active scientific inquiry. For the 2024 award cycle, Herbert was one of just six current and graduating students from Columbia University’s Biomedical Engineering department to earn this prestigious honor.

  • Mosquitoes can learn to love common repellent, scientists find

    Mosquitoes can learn to love common repellent, scientists find

    A groundbreaking new experimental study published Thursday in the *Journal of Experimental Biology* has upended long-held assumptions about how the world’s most widely used insect repellent, DEET, works against disease-carrying mosquitoes. The research, led by an international team of scientists, demonstrates that mosquitoes can be conditioned to associate the scent of DEET with the promise of a food source — even learning to prioritize biting human skin that has been treated with the repellent.

    Lead researcher Claudio Lazzari, an emeritus professor at the University of Tours’ Insect Biology Research Institute in France, was quick to clarify that these surprising lab results, collected under highly controlled experimental conditions, do not undermine DEET’s proven track record as the global gold standard for mosquito bite prevention. Developed in the 1940s in the United States, DEET has been credited with saving millions of lives by reducing transmission of life-threatening mosquito-borne illnesses, and it remains the go-to repellent recommended by the World Health Organization for disease control.

    Despite DEET’s success, Lazzari noted that the scientific community has long lacked a full understanding of why the compound deters mosquitoes in the first place. Researchers have debated for decades whether DEET is toxic to the blood-feeding insects, blocks their ability to track human scent, or simply produces an odor that mosquitoes find naturally unpleasant. To answer this question, the team turned to a classic conditioning experiment modeled after Ivan Pavlov’s famous dog studies, which first demonstrated how animals can learn to link unrelated stimuli to rewards.

    For their tests, the researchers focused on *Aedes aegypti* mosquitoes — the species responsible for spreading dangerous pathogens including dengue fever, Zika, yellow fever, and chikungunya. In initial trials, mosquitoes were placed in mesh enclosures and presented with warm sheep’s blood, which the insects immediately fed on, as expected. When DEET scent was introduced alone, mosquitoes predictably moved away from the food source, consistent with DEET’s repellent properties.

    The conditioning phase followed: over three repeated trials, scientists gave mosquitoes access to warm blood for 20 seconds, releasing DEET scent during the final 10 seconds of feeding. After this training, mosquitoes were re-exposed to DEET scent with no blood present. Astonishingly, more than 60% of the trained mosquitoes still attempted to bite the test fabric, conditioned to link the DEET scent with food. To confirm the result, a researcher offered the trained mosquitoes a choice between two bare hands: one untreated, and one covered in DEET. The insects overwhelmingly chose the DEET-coated hand. The team repeated the experiment using sugar instead of blood (to reflect mosquitoes’ natural diet of plant nectar in the wild) and observed the same outcome.

    Co-author Clement Vinauger, a researcher at Virginia Tech in the United States, explained that the study challenges the long-standing paradigm that DEET repels mosquitoes purely through its inherent chemical properties. “What we are showing is that the mosquito’s brain can rewrite that response based on experience,” Vinauger said. “What the insect has learned matters just as much as what the chemical does. That, I think, is a paradigm shift.” Lazzari added that the repellent effect does not stem from DEET being toxic to mosquitoes; instead, mosquitoes’ innate avoidance of the compound is a learned response to how their brains interpret the chemical scent, which can be reshaped by experience.

    Lazzari emphasized that this learned preference for DEET is extremely unlikely to occur in natural settings, as the specific controlled conditions of the lab experiment are not easily replicated in the wild. He reiterated that the public should continue to follow product instructions for DEET-based repellents, which remain a critical tool for preventing mosquito-borne disease. The findings, however, point to an urgent need for continued research into new repellents that are more effective, more eco-friendly, and less likely to trigger allergic reactions in human users, building on this new understanding of mosquito behavior.

  • China stuurt astronaut op jaarlange ruimtemissie, wil maanlanding in 2030

    China stuurt astronaut op jaarlange ruimtemissie, wil maanlanding in 2030

    China has launched a groundbreaking space mission on Sunday, sending three astronauts to its Tiangong Space Station in a step that marks a major milestone toward the country’s goal of achieving a crewed moon landing by 2030. The mission will include a 12-month continuous stay in orbit for one crew member, a new national record for the longest duration of human spaceflight for China, and will enable critical research into how extended space exposure impacts the human body.

    The Shenzhou-23 spacecraft lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center located in Gansu Province, northwestern China. Onboard the craft are mission commander Zhu Yangzhu, pilot Zhang Yuanzhi, and payload specialist Li Ka-ying. A former Hong Kong police inspector, Li makes history as the first astronaut from Hong Kong to take part in any Chinese space mission. The team waved to onlookers at an official farewell ceremony shortly before launch, in images captured by international news outlets.

    Which crew member will complete the full 12-month orbital stay will be determined later in the mission, based on operational progress and crew health. While this 12-month mission is one of the longest human spaceflight missions ever completed globally, it falls just short of the all-time record of 14.5 consecutive months in space set by a Russian cosmonaut in 1995.

    Beyond low-Earth orbit operations at Tiangong, the Shenzhou-23 mission is a key stepping stone for China’s accelerating lunar exploration program, which has positioned the country as a major competitor in the new global space race alongside the United States. The U.S. currently targets a 2028 crewed moon landing and plans to build a permanent lunar outpost as a precursor to eventual crewed missions to Mars. China, for its part, aims to land its first astronauts on the moon by 2030, and has partnered with Russia to construct a permanent joint lunar base by 2035.

    In recent months, China has completed testing of new core technologies critical to its lunar ambitions, including the heavy-lift Long March-10 rocket, the Mengzhou crewed lunar spacecraft, and the Lanyue lunar lander. The Shenzhou-23 mission will carry out the first autonomous rapid rendezvous and docking with the Tiangong Space Station, a key technical test that will inform future automated docking operations between the Mengzhou spacecraft and Lanyue lander during lunar orbit missions.

    In addition to technical testing, the mission will carry out a wide range of scientific research. Scientists will analyze the physiological impacts of long-term exposure to space radiation, bone density loss, and psychological stress of isolation in microgravity. The mission will also continue what is reported to be the world’s first experiment growing human artificial embryos in space, research aimed at answering fundamental questions about human survival and reproduction beyond Earth.

    China’s rapid progress in space exploration in recent years, including the historic first retrieval of lunar samples from the far side of the moon in 2024, has solidified its status as a leading global power in human spaceflight. With a clear roadmap for lunar exploration and long-term ambitions to expand human presence deeper into the solar system, the country continues to push the boundaries of human space exploration.

  • Young Saint Lucian architect to present housing research at Caribbean forum

    Young Saint Lucian architect to present housing research at Caribbean forum

    A rising young architectural researcher from Saint Lucia is set to showcase her work on regional housing challenges on one of the Caribbean’s leading urban development platforms, marking a major milestone in her rapidly advancing career.

    Twenty-eight-year-old Bonita Bart, a junior architect, educator and design entrepreneur, has received formal acceptance to present her research paper *The Architectural Language in Affordable, Social, and Urban Housing* at the 2026 Caribbean Urban Forum (CUF), scheduled to kick off in Jamaica this coming June. The appearance will mark Bart’s first presentation at a high-profile regional gathering, and it will put a spotlight on both Saint Lucia and early-career researchers from small island developing states.

    The annual CUF convenes cross-sector stakeholders across the Caribbean, including urban planners, practicing architects, government policymakers, and academic researchers, to collaborate on tackling the most pressing challenges facing Caribbean urban centers and co-develop context-appropriate solutions tailored to the unique needs of small island nations.

    Bart’s work centers on an underexplored gap in housing research: how the terminology used to describe housing projects shapes outcomes for funding, implementation, and access. As she explained in an interview with local publication *St. Lucia Times*, her analysis investigates how housing-related terms are used both in professional architectural circles and in local community contexts, as well as how the language used by project teams influences relationships with funding bodies and private sector partners.

    First published in February 2025, Bart’s paper unpacks how clearer language use can improve responses to housing insecurity across the Caribbean, a region that disproportionately struggles with the global housing crisis. A core contribution of her work is untangling the common, consequential confusion between three widely used housing terms: affordable, social, and urban housing. These descriptors are frequently swapped interchangeably in industry and policy discourse, but Bart’s analysis demonstrates that they carry distinct meanings—and that recognizing these differences is critical to advancing effective housing solutions.

    “Many times, when we try to address the housing crisis, which is a global crisis especially for Small Island Developing States, we get stuck in confusion and unproductive debate,” Bart noted. “What stands out in existing research is that the most successful funded projects that actually solve housing challenges often don’t even use the term ‘affordable’.”

    She argues that in many cases, framing housing projects around terms that align with global development priorities—such as “green” or “resilient” housing—can improve both relevance to community needs and chances of securing critical funding. Adjusting terminology to match both local context and global funding priorities, she argues, can remove a key barrier to delivering housing that actually meets community needs across the region.

    Bart’s CUF presentation is just one output of the Caribtecture initiative, an ongoing research project she launched four years ago to advance scholarship on Caribbean architectural practice. The initiative’s core mission, as Bart describes it, is to nurture a distinct Caribbean architectural identity through targeted research, systematic documentation, and open critical discourse, framing the region’s architectural history and theory as active, practical tools that can shape better contemporary design across the islands.

    The Caribtecture initiative grew naturally out of Bart’s academic career: in 2022, she graduated from the University of Technology Jamaica with a Bachelor of Arts in Architectural Studies, and her undergraduate final work won two of the institution’s top honors: Best Final Design Studio Project and Best Final Year Undergraduate Research Project.

    Beyond her research work, Bart holds multiple roles across Saint Lucia’s architectural and education sectors. She is the founder and lead design principal of iBart Design Studio, an independent local architectural practice based in Saint Lucia, serves as secretary of the Saint Lucia Institute of Architects, and works as a technical drawing instructor for local students.

  • Coral scientists fear bleaching El Nino could bring devastation

    Coral scientists fear bleaching El Nino could bring devastation

    BANGKOK, Thailand – A growing body of climate science experts is sounding the alarm that an unusually powerful El Niño weather pattern set to arrive this year could drive catastrophic damage to the world’s coral reefs, many of which are already teetering after consecutive mass bleaching events that have eroded their resilience. Meteorological forecasting models have increasingly converged on the conclusion that the cyclical climate phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years, will return in 2025 with unusual strength, reshaping weather patterns across the globe—bringing severe drought to some regions and catastrophic flooding to others. For coral ecosystems, the greatest risk stems from El Niño’s close link to elevated ocean temperatures and reduced cloud cover in many tropical regions, two conditions that are proven triggers for large-scale coral bleaching.

    “Every global coral bleaching event in recorded history has occurred during an El Niño year,” noted Clint Oakley, a coral reef ecologist at Victoria University of Wellington. Oakley described his reaction to the forecast of a strong event as a feeling of “dread, although not surprise,” warning that a major El Niño this year could prove “serious and devastating for many reefs around the world.”

    To understand why even small temperature increases pose such a grave threat to corals, it is necessary to examine the symbiotic relationship that underpins their survival. Corals build the hard calcium carbonate structures that form reef frameworks, and host tiny algae called zooxanthellae within their tissues. In exchange for shelter, the algae produce nutrient-rich compounds via photosynthesis that feed the coral, and also give reefs their vibrant, distinctive colors. When ocean temperatures rise beyond a coral’s tolerance threshold, however, this mutually beneficial partnership breaks down: the algae are either expelled by the coral or leave voluntarily, a process that scientists have yet to fully explain. Without their algae symbionts, corals lose their color, turning the stark white that gives bleaching its name, and are slowly starved of the nutrients they need to survive.

    If ocean temperatures cool rapidly enough, corals can survive off stored energy reserves until the algae return. But even partial recovery leaves corals malnourished, more susceptible to bacterial and viral infections, and unable to allocate the energy required for successful reproduction. If elevated temperatures persist or reach extreme levels, the outcome is far grimmer. “If it takes too long for the waters to cool down, or if the heat is too extreme, then they will essentially starve and they’ll die,” explained Jen Matthews, a coral researcher at the University of Technology Sydney.

    Occasional, localized bleaching is a natural part of reef ecosystem dynamics, and healthy reefs can recover from small-scale events. The modern crisis stems from repeated mass bleaching events that have become the new normal as anthropogenic climate change drives long-term rising ocean temperatures. Many reefs have not had enough time between events to fully recover and replenish their populations with young coral juveniles. “If you’re being bleached before you’ve even recovered and been able to produce juveniles again, then that’s only a downwards trajectory from there,” Oakley said.

    The most recent global mass bleaching event was formally declared in 2024, and the damage already recorded is extensive. Some coral species in the Caribbean have already been classified as functionally extinct, meaning they can no longer sustain viable populations or fulfill their ecological roles. Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, the world’s largest reef system and the only living structure visible from outer space, lost between 15% and 40% of its total coral cover across different regions between 2024 and 2025.

    A strong, or “super”, El Niño would push ocean temperatures even higher, starting from a baseline that is already too warm for most corals to thrive. Oakley pointed out that average global ocean temperatures over the past five years match the peak temperatures recorded during the 1998 global bleaching event, one of the most destructive on record to that point. While a small share of the world’s corals have shown natural resilience to warmer waters, their numbers are not nearly enough to offset the widespread losses from repeated bleaching cycles.

    In response to the growing crisis, scientists are testing a range of experimental interventions to buy reefs more time: these include nutrient-infused gels to feed stressed corals, shading systems to reduce heat exposure, and genetic engineering to breed more heat-tolerant coral strains. Matthews emphasized that while many of these innovative management strategies show promise, they are not a long-term solution. “There’s a lot of really important and innovative management strategies out there, but they’re all just buying time,” she said.

    Forecasters still note some uncertainty around El Niño’s exact timing, strength, and regional impacts, and urge that projections be interpreted with that caveat in mind. “An El Niño is likely, but the strength and duration are still uncertain,” said Kimberley Reid, a research fellow in atmospheric sciences at the University of Melbourne. “El Niño is one piece of the puzzle that affects the weather at a certain location but there are other factors like local ocean temperatures and winds across the Indian Ocean,” she added.

    Even without a major El Niño event this year, the long-term outlook for global coral reefs remains deeply troubling. Scientists estimate that up to 50% of the world’s coral cover has been lost over the past four decades, eroding irreplaceable ecosystems that provide critical nursery habitat for commercial fish populations that feed billions of people, and act as natural sea walls that protect coastlines from storm surge and erosion.

    Matthews called the current trajectory a sobering reminder of the stakes of climate inaction. “If we don’t get our act together on climate change then all we’re doing is buying time until our reefs, as we know them, disappear.”

  • US expects ‘below normal’ Atlantic hurricane season

    US expects ‘below normal’ Atlantic hurricane season

    US weather researchers have delivered an early forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season that offers cautious optimism, but with a clear warning for coastal communities: even a mild season can bring catastrophic destruction. In an official briefing Thursday, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) leadership announced that forecasters project a below-normal year for storm activity in the Atlantic, driven largely by an expected El Niño climate pattern. Meanwhile, the eastern and central Pacific basin is facing a 70% probability of above-normal storm activity this coming season, according to NOAA data.

    Neil Jacobs, NOAA administrator, explained that El Niño, a natural cyclic climate phase, shapes this forecast through its well-documented global weather impacts. The phenomenon generates strong vertical wind shear across the Atlantic, a disruptive force that can tilt or tear apart developing tropical systems before they have the chance to strengthen into large hurricanes. This dynamic typically suppresses overall storm counts in the Atlantic. For the Pacific, however, El Niño has the opposite effect, creating more favorable conditions for tropical storm development that puts at-risk regions including Hawaii and Mexico at higher likelihood of storm impacts.

    Even with the projected below-normal season, NOAA officials stressed that preparation remains non-negotiable. Jacobs noted that a mild Atlantic season would still bring between 8 and 14 named storms, with 1 to 3 of those expected to strengthen into major hurricanes—storms packing sustained wind speeds of more than 111 miles per hour (178 kilometers per hour). Unlike many storm systems that form out at sea, Atlantic hurricanes disproportionately threaten populated coastal areas, putting more lives and infrastructure at risk of severe damage. “Don’t let words like below average… change the way you’re prepared,” urged Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. Officials also added that the early forecast does not include predictions on whether any storms will make landfall, emphasizing that all at-risk communities should maintain standard preparedness protocols ahead of the June-to-November Atlantic season. The Pacific hurricane season, by comparison, begins in mid-May and also runs through November. This early forecast marks the first time NOAA has released a similar pre-season projection since 2015.

    The forecast comes with an added layer of uncertainty rooted in human-caused climate change, experts note. Rising global temperatures driven by fossil fuel emissions have pushed Atlantic sea surface temperatures to consistently higher levels, which could offset some of El Niño’s suppressing effect on storm development. Graham highlighted this uncertainty in a post-briefing statement, noting that “there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold.”

    The projection also follows on the heels of a devastating 2025 Atlantic season, which brought four major hurricanes including Category 5 Hurricane Melissa. The storm made landfall in Jamaica as one of the most powerful tropical systems ever recorded in the region. Fueled by abnormally warm Caribbean sea surface temperatures, Melissa rapidly intensified to Category 5 strength and moved across the island at a slow, walking pace, extending the exposure to deadly rain, storm surge and wind that left a trail of catastrophic damage. A study from Imperial College London later confirmed that human-caused climate change made Melissa four times more likely to form. Climate scientists have repeatedly documented that rising global temperatures are increasing the frequency of both rapid storm intensification and slow-moving stalled storms, two traits that drastically increase the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes.