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On Monday, global crude oil prices jumped more than 3% following two high-stakes energy infrastructure disruptions over the weekend: an attack on an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and a drone strike that damaged Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline. Benchmark Brent crude climbed $3.21 to settle at $107.82 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $3.17 to reach $103.22 per barrel. This uptick extended an existing rally, after Brent closed at $101.21 on September 9 — its highest level since late May. Market analysts note the price increase is not driven by a single isolated incident, but rather markets pricing in the probability of a prolonged regional conflict that disrupts global energy supplies.

Washington has pushed back against growing anxiety, claiming that transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass, is improving despite a ongoing diplomatic deadlock between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that an average of 10 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily over the previous week, adding that volumes have recovered to two-thirds or more of pre-conflict levels. Former U.S. President Trump echoed these claims, asserting that U.S. forces have “full control” over the waterway and are escorting vessels carrying millions of barrels of oil through the passage.

Iran has directly disputed these U.S. claims. Tehran maintains it retains control over access to the Strait of Hormuz, and has warned vessels against using unapproved shipping routes. Last week, Iran announced a new restricted shipping zone around the critical waterway, tightening its leverage over transit.

Independent shipping data from tanker trackers backs up Iran’s implicit assertion that traffic remains far below normal levels. Preliminary tracking data cited by Reuters shows that the number of daily transits through the strait dropped to single digits over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14 transits per day. In total, just 14 vessels passed through the waterway over the entire weekend, with four exiting the Persian Gulf and 10 entering. Before the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began in February, more than 100 vessels transited the strait daily, carrying an estimated 20 million barrels of oil. Reuters notes that the data remains preliminary and may be updated, as some vessels travel with their Automatic Identification System transponders disabled to avoid detection, placing them outside official counts.

The disruption has put massive pressure on alternative supply routes that Saudi Arabia turned to after Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi officials confirmed that the kingdom’s East-West oil pipeline, which carries crude to Red Sea export terminals, was temporarily shut down after a drone strike launched from Iraqi territory. If the pipeline remains offline, roughly 4% of global oil supply could be taken off the market. A wave of recent rocket and drone attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement on southern Saudi Arabia has further amplified uncertainty over energy exports from the world’s largest oil producer.

On Tuesday, Houthi forces struck civilian and economic sites across the Saudi cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran, leaving 73 people injured including women and children. The attack marks a sharp escalation of the long-running Yemeni civil war, which reignited in July after nearly four years of relative calm under a UN-brokered ceasefire.

Despite repeated U.S. reassurances that the strait is open for business, market analysts warn that upward pressure on oil prices will persist as long as Hormuz transit remains disrupted. “Despite American claims to the contrary, Hormuz is not under U.S. control, and oil is not flowing freely,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group. Beauchamp explained that transits through the strait remain severely restricted, vessels continue to face attack risks, and Houthi strikes on energy infrastructure add an extra layer of uncertainty for global energy markets. “Near-month futures are still trading at a premium to spot prices, which reflects market expectations that supply disruptions will continue, putting additional pressure on the already fragile global economy,” he added.

Christopher Haines, Global Head of Oil at Energy Aspects, also forecasts that crude prices will keep rising, pointing out that flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain drastically lower than pre-conflict levels, while global inventories that helped stabilize markets over the past six months have shrunk considerably. “The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has very little capacity to add additional supply now that planned releases have been completed… Meanwhile, China will not be able to cut back on crude purchases as it did this summer, as seasonal winter demand is ramping up,” Haines told Al Jazeera. “Crude buying has remained robust because refineries have to run at higher rates to produce the heating fuels the Northern Hemisphere needs for the cold season. We believe oil prices can continue climbing, because without the inventory buffers we had in previous months, prices will have to rise to cool demand.”

Over the weekend, new security incidents reinforced the ongoing risk to transit. Early Sunday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a vessel was hit by an unknown projectile while transiting Hormuz. Then on Monday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it had intercepted and destroyed an advanced U.S. MQ-1 drone flying over the strait.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis have also hit a wall. A planned meeting between Gulf states and Iran in Oman, scheduled for Monday to discuss potential agreements on Hormuz transit, was postponed — a major setback to diplomatic efforts to end the six-month conflict. Iran said Monday that Saudi Arabia requested the postponement in response to recent events in Yemen. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright also poured cold water on hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, telling Bloomberg that “betting on a consensus agreement with Iran today is certainly not a good wager.”

Growing Houthi control over another critical global shipping chokepoint, the Bab al-Mandeb strait off Yemen’s western coast, is adding further upward pressure to oil prices, according to maritime experts. “The Bab al-Mandeb, which connects Asia to Europe, is now largely under Houthi control,” Abdul Khalique, head of the Liverpool John Moores University Maritime Centre, told Al Jazeera. After seizing the port of Mocha and the Hanish and Zuqar islands earlier this week, Iranian-aligned Houthi forces captured the strategically vital island of Perim (also called Mayyun) and the mainland town of Dhubab, giving the group effective control over Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline.

Khalique added that war risk insurance premiums for Hormuz transits have skyrocketed, jumping from roughly 0.25% of a vessel’s hull value before the war to between 3% and 10% today, depending on the vessel and route. “For a $100 million tanker, that works out to a war risk premium of $3 million to $10 million for a single transit, before adding coverage for cargo and additional freight costs,” he said. “The U.S. may have substantial military control over the theater of operations, but it has not restored the conditions needed for normal commercial shipping to resume. That gap is exactly why oil prices keep rising even as Washington declares victory.”

With no diplomatic breakthrough on the horizon and multiple key chokepoints remain disrupted, Beauchamp says a return to the March 2024 price highs is only a matter of time. “With no party rushing to negotiate, it looks like oil prices will keep climbing, and a return to the March peaks is a question of when, not if,” he said.