The United States has imposed a stringent six-month deadline for Trinidad and Tobago to renegotiate the Dragon gas deal with Venezuela, as per the October 8 OFAC license issued by the Donald Trump administration. This contrasts sharply with the two-year waiver granted under President Joe Biden in 2023 and the two-and-a-half-year extension sought by former Prime Minister Dr. Keith Rowley. The deal, described by some as “resurrected” and by others as “undead,” has become a political battleground, with the US aiming to exert pressure on the Nicolás Maduro regime while influencing Trinidad and Tobago’s foreign policy alignment.
For the ruling United National Congress (UNC), the situation offers a chance to validate recent diplomatic efforts and undermine the People’s National Movement (PNM)’s claims of energy policy success. Dr. Rowley’s resignation earlier this year and his endorsement of Stuart Young were driven by his desire to secure the Dragon deal. However, the UNC’s adept maneuvering has shifted the US stance, potentially eroding what could have been a cornerstone of Dr. Rowley’s legacy.
Dr. Rowley recently described the OFAC situation as “fluid,” expressing concern over the Prime Minister’s declaration that the deal was dead. Meanwhile, Mr. Young’s hasty press conference in April, following a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a critical tweet from Mr. Trump, further complicated matters. The UNC and PNM both face criticism for their lack of transparency, with Mr. Young’s reference to a “30-year license” misleadingly referring only to Venezuelan authorization.
Despite its significance, the Dragon deal’s political impact may be overestimated. Repeated appeals to citizens for credit on abstract future economic benefits, which may never materialize, offer limited political traction.