The Namibian government projects that the launch of commercial offshore oil production starting in 2028 will deliver transformative impacts to the country’s public finances, driving a steep decline in national sovereign debt within just a few years, according to the revised 2026 National Debt Plan. Under the baseline offshore development scenario, which accounts for projected oil export revenue from projects operated by TotalEnergies and APA Corporation, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to fall to roughly 27% by 2029.
This optimistic projection is built on the core assumption that the two energy majors will bring their offshore oil fields online as scheduled, generating substantial new government revenue that will strengthen the national budget position and boost the country’s debt repayment capacity. The Bureau of National Debt developed two separate forecasting scenarios for the updated plan: one that includes the oil production revenue stream, and a counterfactual that assumes no offshore oil income, with both scenarios maintaining the current national economic policy framework. The outcomes of the two models differ dramatically.
In the oil-inclusive scenario, calculations show the debt ratio will plummet from just over 127% of GDP at the end of 2025 to 27% by 2029. While debt will still decline in the no-oil scenario, the pace of reduction will be far slower. The revised plan also notes that the government’s overall borrowing requirement will shrink once oil production ramps up, reducing the state’s reliance on new sovereign debt issuance and creating additional fiscal space to accelerate the paydown of existing outstanding liabilities.
Despite the promising outlook, the Bureau of National Debt emphasizes that the projection remains subject to significant uncertainty. Multiple external and internal variables will shape the final outcome, including global crude oil price fluctuations, delays to the project’s production launch, domestic economic growth trajectories, exchange rate volatility, and changes to global interest rates. Any unexpected setbacks or cost overruns to the projects could shift the trajectory of national debt reduction from current forecasts.
Even with the projected new oil revenue, the Bureau stresses that maintaining prudent fiscal discipline will remain a critical policy priority. Government spending will need to stay contained even after oil revenue starts flowing, and ongoing structural economic reforms will need to continue to ensure long-term national debt remains at a sustainable level.