On May 13, 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a downward revision to its 2026 global oil consumption growth projection, citing ongoing economic and supply chain disruptions sparked by the war in Iran. The adjustment aligns OPEC’s outlook with earlier bearish forecasts from leading energy bodies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), which had tightened its own estimate of reduced global oil use earlier the same day.
Under the new projections, OPEC now forecasts global oil demand will grow by 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026. That marks a 210,000 bpd cut from the cartel’s prior forecast of 1.38 million bpd growth. In a contrasting move, the organization upgraded its 2027 demand growth estimate by 200,000 bpd, bringing the new projection to 1.54 million bpd. Even amid heightened geopolitical instability concentrated in the Middle East, OPEC reaffirmed its view that the global economy remains resilient, leaving its broader economic growth projections unchanged.
The ongoing conflict in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for global oil trade, which carries roughly a fifth of all globally traded oil out of the Middle East. The closure has pulled millions of barrels of oil off international markets, triggering a sharp spike in global fuel prices. Rising energy costs have placed intense pressure on household budgets and business operating expenses, pushing governments around the world to implement emergency fuel conservation measures and draw down strategic petroleum reserves to cool prices.
For the second quarter of 2026, OPEC projects average global oil consumption will hit 104.57 million bpd, a slight downward adjustment from the 105.07 million bpd forecast it released in its previous monthly report. This is not the first cut to the Q2 2026 forecast: the projection was already trimmed by 500,000 bpd in OPEC’s prior monthly outlook.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has also derailed pre-existing production plans agreed by OPEC+, the expanded coalition of oil-producing nations that combines OPEC members and independent allies including Russia. The group had agreed to ramp up collective oil production starting in April 2026, but the closure of the key trade route forced a reversal of that plan. Data shows OPEC+ collective oil production fell by 1.74 million bpd in April compared to March, settling at an average of 33.19 million bpd. This figure excludes production from the United Arab Emirates, which formally withdrew from OPEC on May 1.