As the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season draws near, senior meteorological officials have sounded a warning over the ongoing trend of rising ocean temperatures, a key driver that amplifies the formation and intensity of tropical weather systems. Speaking in a Wednesday interview on DBS Radio’s popular public education segment *Disaster and You*, Senior Meteorological Officer Marshall Alexander broke down the latest climate observations that set the stage for this year’s storm activity.
Alexander emphasized that anomalously warm sea surfaces act as critical fuel for the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones. The long-term trend of rising ocean temperatures has consistently hit new milestones in recent years, he noted, with 2025 marking a previous global record for ocean warmth and 2026 already on track to surpass that mark. This consistent upward trajectory has created conditions primed for more active storm development across the Atlantic basin.
Official seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season are overseen by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which releases two updated outlooks each year: an initial projection in late May ahead of the season’s official start, and a second update in August, when storm activity typically reaches its peak. Alexander confirmed that local meteorological teams in Dominica are aligning their preparations with NOAA’s forecasting framework to keep communities informed.
While warmer ocean waters raise the likelihood of more frequent and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes this season, Alexander highlighted a mitigating factor that could work in Dominica’s favor: the ongoing El Niño climate pattern. El Niño typically generates increased vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, a weather condition that disrupts developing storm systems by tearing apart their internal structure and dissipating their accumulated energy. “If a tropical system does form, that wind shear will break up or disrupt the system’s energy before it can strengthen and pose a threat,” Alexander explained.
The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially kick off on June 1 and conclude on November 30, spanning the six-month period when 97 percent of all tropical cyclone activity historically occurs in the Atlantic basin. Meteorological agencies across the Caribbean are already finalizing preparedness plans, urging coastal and inland communities to review emergency protocols and stock up on essential supplies ahead of the first potential storm formations.