The official meteorological agency of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a formal tropical weather advisory confirming that a low-pressure disturbance tracked across the open Atlantic Ocean carries no imminent risk to the twin-island nation, as its odds of evolving into a structured subtropical storm continue to dwindle. The update, first released on Friday, November 6, identifies the monitored system as AL94, which at the time of the advisory was situated hundreds of miles south of Bermuda, generating only sparse, scattered shower activity across its surrounding area. Lead forecasters note that persistent, strong upper-atmosphere winds set to blow consistently through the weekend are actively disrupting the system’s ability to build the organized circulation required to qualify as a subtropical weather event. Official assessments peg the probability of AL94 developing defined subtropical characteristics at a mere 10% for both the 48-hour outlook and the full seven-day forecast window. Projection models show the system will drift steadily east across the western and central subtropical Atlantic over the next 48 hours, before it is fully absorbed by a separate non-tropical low-pressure system by the end of the weekend. While the agency emphasizes the sharply reduced storm formation risk, it has issued a secondary caution that isolated pockets of gale-force winds are still possible across sections of the central subtropical Atlantic through the remainder of the weekend. Crucially, the entire system remains positioned far north of the Caribbean island chain, eliminating any immediate threat of rough weather, heavy rainfall, or storm surge reaching Antigua and Barbuda. The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service has committed to sustained real-time monitoring of AL94, and will release additional public advisories promptly if any significant shifts in the system’s trajectory or intensity emerge. A subsequent Saturday morning outlook published by the U.S. National Hurricane Center aligned fully with the local assessment, retaining the 10% development probability for both the 48-hour and seven-day timelines, and reaffirming that the overall risk of subtropical storm formation remains exceptionally low.
Weather System Poses No Immediate Threat to Antigua and Barbuda as Development Chances Drop
