The twin-island nation of Trinidad and Tobago is bracing for a sustained period of below-average rainfall, with national meteorological authorities issuing tiered drought alerts that signal growing water security risks stretching into early 2027.
According to the latest Dryness/Drought Monitor and Outlook from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), Trinidad has been placed under an official drought watch for September 2026, while neighboring Tobago will move to a higher-level drought warning starting in October. The forecast warns that far drier than normal conditions through the second half of 2026 are likely to persist into the 2027 annual dry season, prompting urgent calls for widespread water conservation across the country.
Current conditions, measured between May and July 2026, already show significant dryness across wide swathes of both islands. The southwestern Tobago community of Crown Point and the Trinidad town of Valencia logged fully dry conditions over the three-month period, while central Trinidad, northeastern Tobago and northeastern Trinidad registered slightly drier than average precipitation. Southwestern Trinidad faces the most acute pre-alert dryness, with conditions ranging from moderately dry dry spells to extremely dry budding drought, the TTMS data shows.
Looking ahead through the end of 2026, the TTMS short-term forecast outlines a escalating risk profile. By the end of October, all of Tobago and northeastern Trinidad are expected to be under a drought warning, with moderate dry spell conditions impacting the upper Caroni River basin and a drought watch in effect from Piarco westward across the lower Caroni basin into northwestern Trinidad. By the end of November, the drought warning will remain in place for all of Tobago, with the drought watch extended to cover the entire Caroni River basin and northwestern Trinidad. Overall, short-term drought conditions are projected to impact Tobago, northeastern Trinidad and the lower Caroni River basin through October and November 2026.
The prolonged dry forecast carries significant risks for multiple critical sectors of the national economy, meteorological officials warned. For agriculture, elevated risks to both crop production and livestock are driven by erratic rainfall patterns, an increased number of extreme heat days, and declining soil moisture. “Agricultural interests should ensure regular weeding to reduce competition for water and cut crop water stress, and step up monitoring for pests that thrive in drier-than-usual conditions,” the TTMS advised, adding that stakeholders should also maintain robust on-farm water storage and irrigation infrastructure to offset low precipitation.
For water infrastructure, reduced rainfall translates to slower recharge rates for the nation’s dams, underground aquifers and natural stream flows. This will likely lead to declining available surface water for public distribution systems, putting pressure on national and local water authorities.
In response to the forecast, the TTMS has issued targeted guidance for all key sectors to prepare. Water and energy authorities are urged to implement ongoing mandatory and voluntary water conservation measures, and deliver clear public guidance on safe household water storage and efficient usage. Disaster risk management agencies are directed to educate communities on the impending drought conditions, put preparedness and response plans in place well ahead of the 2027 dry season, and review and strengthen early warning information distribution channels.
The health sector has also been placed on alert: officials are instructed to clear vegetation, unblock drainage networks, and conduct targeted fumigation around residential areas, and update contingency plans to handle potential spikes in vector-borne diseases and other climate-linked infections. Long-term, the TTMS warned that a budding drought is likely to develop across the lower Caroni River basin west of Piarco by September, and a national long-term drought watch may need to be activated as early as December 2026 to January 2027 if current dry trends continue.