Meteorologists are tracking a budding tropical system in the central Atlantic Ocean that carries an 80% probability of developing into a tropical depression over the coming 48 hours. The disturbance, labeled AL92, is currently positioned halfway between the Lesser Antilles island chain and Africa’s western coastline.
In recent observations, the system has begun generating organized bands of showers and thunderstorms, a key early indicator of tropical cyclone development. Forecasters note that atmospheric and oceanic environmental conditions across the central tropical Atlantic are currently favorable to support continued strengthening of the disturbance. As AL92 tracks generally west to west-northwest across this region over the next 24 to 48 hours, the formation of a formal tropical depression is considered highly likely.
The outlook shifts significantly, however, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles this coming weekend. Projections indicate that upper-atmosphere wind speeds will increase to levels that inhibit further intensification once AL92 nears the island chain, putting an upper limit on how strong the system can grow. Current National Hurricane Center forecasts maintain the 80% formation probability across both the 48-hour and seven-day forecast windows, keeping the disturbance at the top of the watch list for Atlantic tropical activity this week.