A newly released climate assessment from the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service has confirmed that 2026 will go down in the archipelago’s weather history books, after Antigua logged its third driest May since systematic rainfall tracking began nearly a century ago in 1928. The official Monthly Climate Summary, published in June to review May’s conditions, paints a stark picture of sustained dry conditions that have rapidly intensified drought across both islands of the Caribbean nation.
Across the entire island of Antigua, the average rainfall recorded for May amounted to just 17.5 millimeters, or 0.69 inches. At the V.C. Bird International Airport monitoring site, one of the archipelago’s longest-running weather stations, only 14.2 millimeters (0.56 inches) of rain fell throughout the entire month, placing this May as the fifth driest on record for that location since 1928.
Meteorologists analyzing the data note that drought conditions have grown steadily more severe across the country over recent months. The Standardized Precipitation Index, a widely used global metric for measuring dryness relative to long-term averages, classified northern Antigua as facing severe drought, while the rest of the island fell into the moderate drought category for May. This dry pattern did not emerge suddenly: the three-month period from March through May 2026 was also categorized as severely dry across the entirety of Antigua, and the dry spell stretches back even further. For the six-month window from December 2025 through May 2026, northern Antigua remains in severe drought, with the rest of the island still classified as moderately dry.
Notably, temperatures across the archipelago remained close to the long-term seasonal average for May, despite the near-complete lack of rainfall. At V.C. Bird International Airport, the average daily mean temperature clocked in at 26.9 degrees Celsius (80.4 degrees Fahrenheit), with an average daily high of 29.9 degrees Celsius (85.8 degrees Fahrenheit). The hottest temperature recorded at the airport for the month hit 30.4 degrees Celsius (86.7 degrees Fahrenheit) on May 31. Island-wide, the average temperature for Antigua settled at 27.4 degrees Celsius (81.3 degrees Fahrenheit), and the highest temperature recorded anywhere on the island reached 34.7 degrees Celsius (94.5 degrees Fahrenheit) at the Five Islands coastal location, also measured on May 31.
Rainfall, when it did occur, was extremely unevenly distributed across Antigua, with the southern and southwestern regions recording the bulk of the limited precipitation. The Donkey Sanctuary monitoring site in St. Paul recorded the highest total monthly rainfall across the island at 83.8 millimeters (3.30 inches), while Cobbs Cross saw the single wettest 24-hour period, when 30.7 millimeters (1.21 inches) fell on May 25.
For the neighboring island of Barbuda, official monitoring recorded just 15.8 millimeters (0.62 inches) of total rainfall throughout May. The island saw only five days with measurable precipitation, and endured a continuous 14-day dry stretch during the month. At the Sir McChesney George Secondary School monitoring station, the average daily mean temperature for May was 27.5 degrees Celsius (81.5 degrees Fahrenheit). While limited on-the-ground monitoring data prevents meteorologists from issuing a definitive drought classification for Barbuda, satellite-based precipitation estimates indicate the island is facing dry conditions nearly identical to those impacting Antigua, the report confirmed.