Global crude oil markets delivered a historic jump on Wednesday, with prices climbing more than 6% to close at their highest levels in weeks, driven by escalating fears of prolonged Middle Eastern supply disruptions following stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran. A larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. commercial oil and fuel inventories further amplified upward price momentum, compounding already tight market conditions.
June Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for oil prices, notched an eighth consecutive day of gains on Wednesday, settling up $6.77, or 6.1%, at $118.03 per barrel — its highest closing level since March 31. In post-market trading, the benchmark extended its rally to hit $120 per barrel, a threshold not crossed since June 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for the same delivery month rose $6.95, or 7%, to settle at $106.88 per barrel, the highest peak since April 7.
Market anxiety deepened after a White House official confirmed that former U.S. President Donald Trump has asked domestic oil producers to outline mitigation strategies for a potential months-long closure of Iranian ports by U.S. sanctions. Calculations from Reuters show the ongoing geopolitical conflict centered on Iran has already cut off more than $50 billion worth of crude oil from global markets. “An extended port blockage would worsen existing supply disruptions and push prices even higher,” warned Yang An, a senior analyst at Haitong Futures.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) added further fuel to the rally, reporting that U.S. crude inventories fell by more than 6 million barrels last week. That drawdown far outpaced the 200,000 barrel decline analysts had forecast. Both gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles, a category that includes diesel, also dropped more sharply than predicted. The inventory declines sparked fresh concerns over potential shortages in the world’s largest fuel consumer just as the summer peak driving season, a period of historically high fuel demand, gets underway. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted that growing seasonal summer demand paired with ongoing supply restrictions will likely provide additional upward support for oil prices in coming weeks.
In another development that underscores the severity of current supply chain disruptions, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has notified some customers that it may shift loading of two crude grades to ports outside the Persian Gulf next month, as the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, remains closed, according to sources and a document reviewed by Reuters. The prolonged closure of the strait, through which roughly 20% of global oil trade passes daily, has already placed severe pressure on global oil and gas supplies.
Beyond immediate supply disruptions, investors are also assessing the long-term market impact of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to withdraw from OPEC. Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, noted that most analysts expect little near-term market impact, as Middle Eastern producers are projected to maintain maximum output levels to capitalize on high prices.
However, research firm Wood Mackenzie warned that the UAE’s exit marks the most significant rupture in OPEC’s decades-long history, and increases the risk of global oversupply that could push oil prices lower starting in 2027. Simon Flowers, chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie, explained that the departure will have minimal impact on 2026 market dynamics even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but after that point, losing one of OPEC’s most productive members will make it far harder for the cartel to balance global markets, amplifying risks of oversupply and downward price pressure.
Amid widespread geopolitical and economic uncertainty, gold has also emerged as a standout asset for investors. On April 30, 2026, gold settled at $4,541 per troy ounce, marking a 44% increase from April 2025 and hitting an all-time record high. The sharp rally is widely attributed to growing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns, and broad global economic uncertainty. Top Wall Street banks are split on how high prices can go: analysts from JPMorgan and Bank of America project gold will climb toward $5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, while strategists at UBS and Deutsche Bank forecast prices could surge above $6,000 per ounce this year.