After nearly six decades as a core member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its expanded OPEC+ alliance, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its formal withdrawal from both groups, a move that industry analysts warn could trigger far-reaching shifts in global energy markets and redefine geopolitical power dynamics across the Middle East.
In an official statement, the UAE framed the departure as a deliberate alignment with its long-term strategic and economic priorities, noting that the decision reflects the rapid evolution of the country’s energy portfolio as it pursues diversification and expanded global market influence. UAE’s energy minister emphasized that exiting the production quota agreements bound to OPEC membership will unlock greater operational flexibility for the country’s energy sector, allowing it to adapt more nimbly to shifting global demand and its own development goals.
The UAE first joined OPEC in 1967, just seven years after the cartel was founded in 1960 by five original members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Its exit reduces OPEC’s current membership to 11 remaining nations, stripping the group of roughly 15% of its total oil production capacity. Current data from OPEC places the UAE’s annual output at 2.9 million barrels of crude oil, making it the cartel’s second-largest producer behind de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, which pumps roughly nine million barrels annually. Industry observers also note the UAE has long been one of the alliance’s most compliant members, consistently adhering to agreed production cuts to stabilize global prices.
Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at Australia-based MST Financial, called the exit “the beginning of the end of OPEC.” He argued that Saudi Arabia will now face an unprecedented challenge holding the remaining alliance together, as the kingdom will be forced to shoulder nearly all the responsibility for enforcing internal production compliance and managing global oil market dynamics on its own. Kavonic added that the departure could open the door for other dissatisfied OPEC members to follow the UAE’s lead in exiting the group.
Beyond energy markets, Kavonic emphasized that the withdrawal marks the start of a fundamental geopolitical reshaping of both the Middle East and the global oil ecosystem. OPEC was established to coordinate national oil production policies among member states, with the core mission of delivering stable, predictable revenue for producing nations while balancing global supply and demand. Over the decades, the cartel’s membership has fluctuated, with nations joining and exiting at various points; today, beyond the five founding nations, remaining members include Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, and the Republic of the Congo.