Between March 23 and April 1, 2026, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Camilo E. Tovar completed a virtual assessment of progress under Haiti’s third review of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), holding productive discussions with senior Haitian officials including Minister of Economy and Finance Serge Gabriel Collin and Central Bank of Haiti Governor Ronald Gabriel. The IMF delegation thanked Haitian authorities for their transparent cooperation throughout the mission.
In his closing statement, Tovar outlined the cascading crises weighing on Haiti’s macroeconomic outlook, noting the country is grappling with a worsening security landscape, overlapping domestic and external shocks, and a fragile political transition that paves the way for the first national elections in a decade later this year. The most acute recent pressure has come from a global oil price shock tied to Middle East conflict, which has sharply inflated Haiti’s fuel import costs and implicit subsidy burdens, further eroding an already precarious fiscal position. This shock compounds the damage from Hurricane Melissa, which struck in October 2025, disrupting economic output and worsening already critical humanitarian needs.
Economic data confirms the depth of Haiti’s ongoing contraction: real GDP shrank for the seventh consecutive year in fiscal year 2025. While headline inflation has pulled back rapidly from its 32% peak at the end of FY2025 to 22.1% year-on-year in recent months, price growth is expected to remain elevated through the coming year. Amid weak economic activity and widespread policy uncertainty, financial intermediation has continued to contract. While this pullback in bank lending has driven a modest improvement in non-performing loan ratios, and capital adequacy levels remain comfortably above regulatory minimums, the contraction has restricted access to credit for households and businesses across the country.
Against a deteriorating global backdrop, Haiti’s external reserve position has held up better than expected. Spiking oil prices have placed heavy pressure on the country’s external balance, but strong remittance inflows have partially offset these pressures, even amid uncertainty over the future of Haiti’s Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in the United States. The current account is projected to remain near balance in FY2026, while gross international reserves are expected to hit $3.4 billion by the end of the fiscal year – enough to cover more than seven months of projected goods and service imports. The nominal exchange rate has also stayed broadly stable, though high inflation has driven an appreciation of the real exchange rate.
Fiscal policy remains severely constrained by persistent insecurity, long-standing institutional weaknesses, and limited policy space. Revenue collection in FY2026 has underperformed, reflecting security-related disruptions to economic activity, administrative fragility, and institutional paralysis triggered by the expiration of the Transitional Presidential Council’s mandate. Rising global oil prices are expected to add further pressure via growing implicit subsidy costs, while budget implementation has been uneven due to capacity constraints and pervasive uncertainty. These challenges have sharpened trade-offs for policymakers, underscoring the urgent need to prioritize spending while protecting support for low-income and vulnerable households.
Overall, risks to Haiti’s economic outlook are firmly tilted to the downside, Tovar emphasized. A further deterioration in security, combined with sustained high global oil prices, could suppress economic activity, push up food prices to worsen humanitarian conditions, and intensify fiscal strain. A shift in U.S. immigration policy that cuts remittance inflows would also weaken Haiti’s external position. That said, there are limited upside risks: the planned deployment of a UN-backed Gang Suppression Force could restore security, boost business confidence, and support a nascent economic recovery.
Encouragingly, all quantitative and structural program targets set for the end of December 2025 were met. Net international reserve accumulation hit $1.76 billion by the end of 2025, while targets for revenue collection, the primary fiscal balance, and social spending all remained on track. The monetary financing target was also achieved despite shrinking fiscal space, and the broader reform agenda covering governance, public financial management, and data transparency continues to advance, albeit with delays in some priority areas.
Moving forward, the SMP will prioritize six core policy pillars to support macroeconomic stability and institutional rebuilding. First, the program will focus on strengthening governance to address systemic fragility and rebuild public trust in state institutions. Reforms centered on the IMF’s Governance Diagnostic Report aim to improve public financial management transparency, strengthen revenue administration safeguards, and expand anti-corruption and anti-organized crime frameworks. Critical progress on anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) rules, including publication of a new national risk assessment, will also support Haiti’s efforts to exit the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.
Second, the program will step up support for revenue mobilization to address Haiti’s chronically low revenue base and growing security and development needs. Spiking oil prices have squeezed fiscal space, making accelerated tax and customs reforms – including full implementation of the new tax code, expanded digital infrastructure, and improved tax compliance among large taxpayers – all the more urgent. The IMF welcomed Haitian authorities’ recent decision to raise domestic fuel pump prices, which will reduce revenue lost to implicit subsidies, alongside a new decree establishing a more predictable fuel price adjustment framework. The IMF also stressed the need for a robust public communication strategy to build broad support for the reform, and reiterated the importance of protecting vulnerable households through remaining resources from the 2023 IMF Food Shock Window.
Third, reforms will prioritize improving budget execution to ensure limited public resources are directed to high-priority social, humanitarian, and security spending. Following recent IMF technical assistance recommendations, this will require stronger cash management, tighter spending commitment controls, and improved project prioritization for public investment. These changes will enable more timely delivery of public assistance, strengthen social spending implementation, and improve overall spending efficiency to support reconstruction amid constrained resources.
Fourth, the program will support efforts to consolidate the Central Bank of Haiti (BRH)’s policy framework and strengthen its institutional credibility. The BRH remains committed to preserving price and exchange rate stability, a commitment that has anchored macroeconomic performance under the SMP. Stable exchange rates have provided a critical nominal anchor for the economy, supported by sustained prudent reserve accumulation. Governance at the central bank has already improved via adoption of a new reserve management framework, updated investment policies aligned with core safety and liquidity objectives.
Fifth, the program will advance reforms to strengthen financial system regulation and supervision. Haitian authorities are making progress rolling out risk-based banking supervision, expanding on-site inspections and upgrading off-site monitoring of bank risk profiles. Work is ongoing to operationalize the new supervisory framework, integrate modern risk assessment tools into the BRH’s governance structure, and finalize a standardized chart of accounts for all financial institutions. These changes will boost financial stability and strengthen banking sector resilience amid a challenging operating environment.
Sixth, the program will continue efforts to improve the quality and timeliness of economic data. Following the successful audit and publication of the BRH’s FY2023 financial statements, work is now underway to audit FY2024 statements. Continued implementation of IMF safeguards assessment recommendations will further strengthen central bank governance and risk management, while progress is also being made to align data reporting with international standards, including the IMF’s International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity template and external sector statistics frameworks. Further alignment of government finance and financial soundness indicator reporting with international standards will improve fiscal transparency and financial oversight.
Finally, the IMF will continue to collaborate closely with international development partners to help Haiti manage fiscal risks and preserve macroeconomic stability. Amid rising oil price pressures, growing financing gaps could lead to unsustainable domestic debt accumulation that damages public sector balance sheets. The IMF recommends that external support be provided primarily as grants rather than non-concessional borrowing to preserve debt sustainability, paired with rigorous appraisal and transparency requirements for donor-funded projects. Aligned with the IMF’s strategy for fragile and conflict-affected states, the Fund will continue working alongside partners to support governance building and institutional capacity development in Haiti.
For context, a Staff-Monitored Program is an informal agreement between national authorities and the IMF that allows the Fund to monitor the implementation of the country’s home-grown economic reform agenda. Successful implementation under an SMP helps authorities build a track record of policy delivery that can open the door to future IMF financial assistance through upper credit tranche arrangements.
