As international climate projections warn of an extreme El Niño event unfolding this year, Latin America and the Caribbean—an engine of global food production—now face a dual crisis that puts rural livelihoods, regional stability, and global food supplies at severe risk. When paired with the ongoing global fertilizer shortage, this climate event could create an unprecedented perfect storm that upends agricultural output and endangers food access for millions across the region.
Individually, each challenge already places enormous strain on the region’s farming systems. But their simultaneous arrival amplifies risk to catastrophic levels for small and medium-sized producers, who form the backbone of local food production across much of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Current climate models show a strong likelihood that a high-intensity El Niño will develop in 2024, with highly uneven impacts across the region. Some areas will face catastrophic flooding and extreme rainfall, while others will struggle with prolonged drought and crippling water scarcity. The biggest source of uncertainty for producers and policymakers alike is just how intense this event will ultimately become.
Not all regions will face equal harm: parts of the Southern Cone, including major grain-producing areas of Argentina and Brazil, may see a boost in output from increased rainfall that helps reverse recent yield declines. But for Central America, the Caribbean, and northern South America, the forecast paints a far grimmer picture.
In these vulnerable zones, the risk of widespread crop failure, sharp drops in livestock productivity, broken agricultural supply chains, and skyrocketing food prices is already acute. These threats are not hypothetical: past extreme El Niño events have left communities facing hundreds of millions of dollars in costs, collapsed food security, and widespread economic disruption. Too often, the damage lingers long after the climate event passes, leaving rural households trapped in debt, pushing families to migrate in search of more stable work, and driving widespread nutritional decline across vulnerable communities.
For producers, the volatility created by this dual crisis makes even basic planning nearly impossible. Uncertainty around climate conditions makes it hard to choose which crops to plant, how much capital to invest, or what level of fertilizer application makes economic sense. When fertilizer prices surge or supplies run short, many producers have no choice but to cut application rates, reduce the amount of land they cultivate, or shift to less productive, lower-input crops—all of which immediately drag down overall output and yields.
Unlike past eras when communities had no way to prepare for extreme climate events, modern forecasting now gives stakeholders the ability to anticipate El Niño and La Niña events, map their likely impacts, and plan for consequences in advance. Waiting for drought to take hold, for floods to destroy crops, or for food prices to spike before taking action is no longer acceptable. Proactive, early intervention is the only way to cut down on avoidable damage and protect vulnerable communities.
That reality makes a clear case for a coordinated, regional proactive strategy to build resilience. Leaders across the hemisphere must convene a broad dialogue on agri-food resilience that brings together governments, multilateral organizations, producer groups, the financial sector, academic institutions, and private industry around a shared goal: building robust anticipatory capacity that protects both agricultural output and rural livelihoods across the region.
International technical cooperation is uniquely positioned to drive this work forward, thanks to its ability to coordinate political and technical action, connect stakeholders across national borders, and build partnerships between governments, producers, private companies, and global financial institutions. These organizations can help facilitate regional cooperation agreements, support proactive preparedness measures, and coordinate emergency aid and solidarity responses when crises do hit.
Key collaborative mechanisms that can be scaled immediately include regional climate and agricultural coordination platforms, pre-negotiated agreements with fertilizer producers and logistics companies to guarantee supply to vulnerable regions, innovative financial tools developed in partnership with public and private banks, expanded access to climate-linked agricultural insurance, and joint technical adaptation programs tailored specifically to the needs of small and medium-sized producers.
Private sector participation is non-negotiable for these strategies to become viable and scalable. Fertilizer manufacturers, agribusiness firms, financial institutions, technology providers, and agricultural export chains all play foundational roles in building shared agricultural resilience across the region.
Upgrading early warning systems and turning raw climate data into actionable decision-making tools for producers must be a top regional priority. While Latin America and the Caribbean generate vast amounts of high-value meteorological and agricultural data, that information rarely reaches small producers in a timely, usable format—a gap that must be closed immediately to reduce avoidable losses.
Other core priorities for regional coordination include widespread adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties, investment in efficient water management infrastructure, and the scaling of advanced agronomic management tools including GPS mapping, agricultural drones, and soil moisture sensors that help producers adapt to volatile conditions.
Leaders note that this dual crisis also presents an unexpected opening: it creates an opportunity to build a new system of agri-food governance rooted in regional cooperation, technological innovation, and proactive foresight that can address future climate challenges.
As a region that feeds billions of people across the globe, protecting Latin America and the Caribbean’s agricultural productive capacity is far more than an economic issue. It is a strategic priority for global development, rural stability, and the long-term security of the global food system. The time to act is now, before the perfect storm hits.
