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NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 hurricane season
As the official start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season draws near, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official seasonal prediction, calling for a below-average number of storms across the basin this year. The Atlantic hurricane season runs annually from June 1 through November 30, and NOAA’s updated outlook puts the probability of a below-normal season at 55%, compared to a 35% chance of near-normal activity and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
In terms of projected storm counts, NOAA forecasters estimate the 2026 season will see between 8 and 14 named storms — systems that reach sustained wind speeds of 39 miles per hour (63 km/h) or higher. Of these named storms, 3 to 6 are expected to strengthen into full hurricanes, defined by sustained winds of at least 75 miles per hour, with 1 to 3 intensifying further into major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5 strength, which carry winds of 115 miles per hour or stronger. Forecasters hold a 70% confidence interval in this range of projections, which falls well below the 30-year average for Atlantic hurricane seasons: a typical season brings 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized that NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) are fully prepared to provide timely, accurate updates as the season unfolds, noting that cutting-edge forecasting and tracking infrastructure is in place to deliver real-time storm alerts to at-risk communities.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs expanded on this preparation, highlighting the agency’s integration of modern innovative tools into its forecasting workflows. “AI-powered weather models, unmanned aerial surveillance drones, and next-generation satellite data, paired with the decades of specialized expertise held by NWS forecasters, will allow us to generate the most reliable forecasts possible to keep vulnerable communities safe,” Jacobs stated.
Meteorologists point to competing climate patterns that are driving the projection for a quieter-than-average season. The key suppressing factor is the expected development and intensification of El Niño over the course of the season, a climate phenomenon in the Pacific that is well-documented to reduce tropical cyclone formation and intensification in the Atlantic by increasing vertical wind shear that tears developing storms apart. Counteracting this trend, however, are slightly warmer-than-average projected sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic and weaker-than-average trade winds, both of which can create favorable conditions for storm growth.
Even with the forecast for below-normal activity, NWS Director Ken Graham stressed that preparedness remains non-negotiable for all communities in hurricane-prone regions. “While El Niño often suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, it only takes one damaging storm to turn a quiet overall season into a catastrophic disaster for your community,” Graham warned. He directed residents to visit the official NWS safety website at https://www.weather.gov/safety and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s preparedness portal at https://www.ready.gov/ to access critical resources and update emergency plans ahead of the season.
The World Meteorological Organization’s pre-approved list of 2026 Atlantic tropical storm names is: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edward, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
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LIVE: Novena in honor of the Holy Spirit Night 6 Theme – Called to be Ambassadors for Christ
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LIVE: Novena in honor of the Holy Spirit Theme – Called to be Ambassadors for Christ Night 5
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Strong winds advisory: Saturday, 16 May (1 pm)
The Grenada Meteorological Service has issued an official advisory as it continues to monitor moderate to strong wind conditions across the island nation, driven by a sharp contrast in atmospheric pressure across the region. According to meteorological analysis, a tight pressure gradient formed between a strong 1031 millibar high-pressure system positioned over the Atlantic Ocean and a 1008 millibar low-pressure system located off northern Colombia is the primary force sustaining these intense wind conditions across the Eastern Caribbean.
For the island of Grenada specifically, the forecast through the duration of this event calls for generally fair overall weather, but sustained windy and hazy conditions will persist alongside the stable air mass. Compounding the wind-related risks, a formal marine advisory remains in effect, as forecasters project that powerful easterly swells will generate open-ocean waves reaching heights of up to 9 feet.
Meteorologists have outlined multiple potential hazards that residents and visitors should prepare for in the coming days. On land, gusty strong winds are capable of dislodging unsecured loose objects, sending them flying into pedestrian or vehicle pathways. The sustained wind speeds also raise the risk of snapping tree branches and felling entire unstable trees across the island. At sea, the combination of strong winds and large swells will create choppy, moderate to rough sea conditions that pose threats to multiple groups, including local commercial and recreational fishermen, beachgoers gathered along exposed coastlines, operators of small sailboats, and all other users of small watercraft.
In its public advisory, the Meteorological Service has urged all people in Grenada to exercise key precautions to avoid injury or property damage. Residents are advised to remain alert for falling broken branches, toppled trees, and airborne loose debris while traveling or spending time outdoors. For marine users, the agency emphasizes extra caution for vulnerable small craft, particularly during periods of high tide when water levels amplify already dangerous sea conditions.
This advisory was issued jointly through coordination with the Grenada Airports Authority (MBIA). NOW Grenada, the distributor of this advisory, notes that it holds no responsibility for the content or opinions of third-party contributor materials, and directs users to official reporting channels to flag any abusive content related to this weather update.
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LIVE on DNO FROM 6PM: Novena in honour of Holy Spirit night 1 – Called to be ambassadors to Christ
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WEATHER (6:00 AM, May 13, 2026):
Over the next full day, stable atmospheric conditions will remain the primary driver of regional weather, shaped by a persistent high-pressure system that anchors the overall pattern. As fragmented cloud masses drift with prevailing wind currents, the sky will range from partially overcast to fully cloudy, accompanied by scattered rain showers. Some of these showers may intensify into moderate or even heavy downpours, with the highest concentrations forecast for early morning hours and overnight. For residents living in zones prone to flash flooding, mudslides, and falling rock debris, local weather officials urge constant vigilance and proactive safety measures to avoid risk.
Later this evening, the region will also see a thin, diffuse plume of dust carried from the Sahara Desert reach the island. While the concentration is not expected to be severe, individuals with pre-existing respiratory conditions or heightened sensitivity to airborne particulates are advised to take appropriate protective steps, such as limiting prolonged outdoor exposure and keeping indoor air filtered.
Looking at marine conditions, wave heights will stay relatively mild through most of the next 24 hours, ranging from small to moderate across surrounding waters. Off the eastern coastline, waves are projected to build to a maximum of 7 feet, while the western coast will see calmer swells averaging around 3 feet. However, overnight tonight, sea conditions will deteriorate slightly: eastern coast waves are expected to climb to nearly 8 feet, and western coast swells will rise to roughly 5 feet. Operators of small recreational and commercial vessels, as well as people planning to swim in open waters, are advised to maintain extra caution and avoid venturing too far from shore.
In a separate update on broader Atlantic tropical activity, meteorologists are continuing to track a third tropical wave that is currently moving across the eastern portion of the tropical Atlantic. No immediate development has been projected for the system at this time, but monitoring remains ongoing to track any changes in its strength or trajectory.
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Public invitation to UWI Dominica Open House and Public Lecture with with professor C. Justin Robinson
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