Trinidad and Tobago, the Caribbean’s last remaining investment-grade sovereign, is teetering on the edge of a financial precipice. Last week, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded the country’s economic outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative,’ signaling a one-in-three chance of a full credit rating downgrade within the next 6 to 24 months. This warning has profound implications for the nation’s 1.4 million citizens, who could face skyrocketing borrowing costs, reduced public services, and heightened economic hardship. The twin-island nation currently holds a BBB- rating, the lowest tier of investment-grade status. A further downgrade to BB+ would plunge the country into ‘junk’ territory, forcing institutional investors to divest and significantly increasing the cost of government borrowing. The stakes are high: Trinidad and Tobago’s potential fall would leave the entire English-speaking Caribbean without a single investment-grade sovereign. The root causes of this crisis are deeply entrenched. The country’s over-reliance on its declining oil and gas sector, chronic fiscal deficits, and stagnant economic growth have created a perfect storm. Oil and gas still account for over 25% of GDP, nearly 80% of exports, and the bulk of government revenues. However, production has been declining for years, and new projects require costly deep-water drilling. Meanwhile, the government’s debt burden has reached 81.3% of GDP, and the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, built from past oil booms, continues to shrink. S&P has issued an ultimatum: implement fundamental structural reforms within the next two years or face junk status. These reforms include diversifying the economy beyond oil and gas, improving fiscal discipline, addressing chronic USD shortages, and strengthening institutions. While the challenges are daunting, Trinidad and Tobago retains some advantages, including political stability, substantial liquid assets, and sound monetary management. The country’s strategic location as a regional energy hub and gateway to South America also offers opportunities for diversification. The government’s response to this crisis will determine whether Trinidad and Tobago can avoid the fate of its Caribbean neighbors, such as Barbados and The Bahamas, which have struggled with high borrowing costs and austerity measures after losing their investment-grade status. The clock is ticking, and the stakes extend far beyond credit ratings. Success could position Trinidad and Tobago as a model for small island developing states navigating the transition to post-petroleum prosperity. Failure, however, would burden citizens with higher costs and eliminate the Caribbean’s last beacon of investment-grade credibility.
OP-ED- Last Stand: Trinidad And Tobago Races Against Time To Save Caribbean’s Final Investment Grade Rating
