International credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has released a new in-depth issuer credit analysis that reaffirms and reinforces its positive assessment of Trinidad and Tobago’s economic and fiscal standing, according to an official statement from the country’s Ministry of Finance shared via social media.
This latest report expands on the conclusions Moody’s first reached in June 2026, when the rating agency adjusted Trinidad and Tobago’s credit outlook from Negative to Stable while maintaining the country’s Ba2 issuer rating. The analysis evaluates a full spectrum of factors shaping the nation’s credit profile, from economic performance and institutional governance to fiscal health, liquidity, and vulnerability to domestic and global shocks.
One of the key strengths Moody’s highlights is the substantial fiscal buffers Trinidad and Tobago has built up to weather economic instability. These buffers include the country’s Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, which holds assets equal to roughly 25% of national gross domestic product (GDP), plus an additional 7% of GDP held in Treasury cash and cash-equivalent deposits. Combined, these reserves give the government significant capacity to absorb unexpected economic shocks, cover budget financing gaps, and meet debt service obligations during periods of market or commodity volatility.
The report also notes other core strengths underpinning the country’s credit standing: its relatively high per capita income, which hit US$35,956 on a purchasing power parity basis in 2025 and supports ongoing economic resilience. Moody’s projects a notable rebound in domestic natural gas production by the end of 2027, driven by new output from the Manatee, Ginger, and Aphrodite energy fields. The agency forecasts that total gas output will rise from the current 2.5 billion cubic feet per day to between 3.0 and 3.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2028–2029, a gain that will boost medium-term economic growth, lift export volumes, and increase foreign exchange generation for the country.
Moody’s also explicitly recognized the strength of Trinidad and Tobago’s national institutions, pointing to the country’s constitutional system of checks and balances, consistent history of peaceful, clean political transitions, and strong governance scores for voice and accountability that outperform many peer economies with similar credit ratings. The report further acknowledges the Trinidad and Tobago government’s ongoing reform agenda, including improvements to public data transparency, initiatives to expand non-oil government revenue, and efforts to cut excessive government transfer and subsidy spending.
On external liquidity, Moody’s projects liquid foreign exchange reserves will hold between US$3.5 billion and US$4.0 billion, enough to fully cover all external debt service obligations and provide roughly four months of import cover. The Ministry of Finance noted that gross total reserves actually stood at US$5.7 billion as of July 2026, equal to 6.7 months of import cover, with the difference stemming from Moody’s narrower definition of liquid reserves that excludes gold holdings and special drawing rights (SDRs).
The analysis also points to Trinidad and Tobago’s favorable external debt amortization schedule, which extends out to 2034, with debt affordability remaining on par with other Ba2-rated peers. In 2025, interest payments on government debt accounted for 12.7% of total government revenue, slightly below the regional median of 13.1%. Access to the country’s relatively deep domestic financial market helps keep refinancing risks and interest costs low, while foreign currency-denominated debt makes up only a small share of total government debt, limiting the country’s exposure to sudden exchange rate fluctuations.
Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo emphasized that the new Moody’s assessment serves as independent validation of the current government’s policy direction implemented since it took office. “Our sizeable fiscal buffers, our renewed and continued access to international capital markets on favourable terms, and the encouraging outlook for our energy sector all point to a more stable and confident Trinidad and Tobago,” Tancoo said. “We remain fully committed to deepening fiscal consolidation, strengthening our institutions, and building a stronger, more diversified economy for the benefit of all our citizens.”