As the official start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season draws near, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official seasonal prediction, calling for a below-average number of storms across the basin this year. The Atlantic hurricane season runs annually from June 1 through November 30, and NOAA’s updated outlook puts the probability of a below-normal season at 55%, compared to a 35% chance of near-normal activity and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
In terms of projected storm counts, NOAA forecasters estimate the 2026 season will see between 8 and 14 named storms — systems that reach sustained wind speeds of 39 miles per hour (63 km/h) or higher. Of these named storms, 3 to 6 are expected to strengthen into full hurricanes, defined by sustained winds of at least 75 miles per hour, with 1 to 3 intensifying further into major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5 strength, which carry winds of 115 miles per hour or stronger. Forecasters hold a 70% confidence interval in this range of projections, which falls well below the 30-year average for Atlantic hurricane seasons: a typical season brings 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized that NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) are fully prepared to provide timely, accurate updates as the season unfolds, noting that cutting-edge forecasting and tracking infrastructure is in place to deliver real-time storm alerts to at-risk communities.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs expanded on this preparation, highlighting the agency’s integration of modern innovative tools into its forecasting workflows. “AI-powered weather models, unmanned aerial surveillance drones, and next-generation satellite data, paired with the decades of specialized expertise held by NWS forecasters, will allow us to generate the most reliable forecasts possible to keep vulnerable communities safe,” Jacobs stated.
Meteorologists point to competing climate patterns that are driving the projection for a quieter-than-average season. The key suppressing factor is the expected development and intensification of El Niño over the course of the season, a climate phenomenon in the Pacific that is well-documented to reduce tropical cyclone formation and intensification in the Atlantic by increasing vertical wind shear that tears developing storms apart. Counteracting this trend, however, are slightly warmer-than-average projected sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic and weaker-than-average trade winds, both of which can create favorable conditions for storm growth.
Even with the forecast for below-normal activity, NWS Director Ken Graham stressed that preparedness remains non-negotiable for all communities in hurricane-prone regions. “While El Niño often suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, it only takes one damaging storm to turn a quiet overall season into a catastrophic disaster for your community,” Graham warned. He directed residents to visit the official NWS safety website at https://www.weather.gov/safety and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s preparedness portal at https://www.ready.gov/ to access critical resources and update emergency plans ahead of the season.
The World Meteorological Organization’s pre-approved list of 2026 Atlantic tropical storm names is: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edward, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.