Global energy markets are facing unprecedented disruption after OPEC+ member states greenlit a modest third consecutive monthly oil production increase for June, with the move’s real-world impact largely muted by the ongoing closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict.
During an online meeting held Sunday, seven OPEC+ nations — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman — agreed to lift their collective production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day. This matches the size of the quota increase implemented in May, and the calculation excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which withdrew from the OPEC+ production agreement starting May 1.
Industry analysts and OPEC+ insiders frame the decision as largely a symbolic signal of the bloc’s readiness to ramp up output once the regional conflict is resolved. Jorge Leon, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, noted that the move delivers a dual message: the alliance remains stable despite the UAE’s departure, and it retains policy control even when physical production capacity is constrained.
In practice, actual current production across many key member states already falls far below the newly adjusted quotas. For example, Saudi Arabia produced just 7.76 million barrels per day in March, while its new June quota is set at 10.291 million barrels per day.
The root cause of this production gap is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been in place since the Iran conflict broke out on February 28. The waterway is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, and its closure has severely restricted export capabilities for major OPEC+ producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and even the non-bloc UAE, leaving almost no room to bring additional volumes of crude to international markets.
Energy experts across the Gulf region and global oil trading community warn that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, it will take anywhere from weeks to months for global oil supply chains to return to normal operations.
The ongoing supply disruption has already driven benchmark crude oil prices to a four-year high above $125 per barrel. Analysts have issued urgent warnings that the market could face a jet fuel shortage within one to two months, and that sustained high energy prices will push global inflation even higher in coming months.
Official OPEC data shows that total combined production across all OPEC+ members averaged just 35.06 million barrels per day in March, representing a drop of 7.7 million barrels per day compared to February levels. Iraq and Saudi Arabia recorded the largest production cuts, directly driven by export restrictions tied to the strait closure.
The seven member states that participated in Sunday’s meeting have scheduled their next gathering for June 7, when they will re-evaluate the market and geopolitical situation and consider potential further policy adjustments.