In a stark annual assessment released Thursday, the Netherlands’ leading intelligence and security service, the Algemene Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdienst (AIVD), has sounded the alarm that the country is facing the most severe combination of national security threats it has encountered since the end of World War II. Officials identify major foreign and domestic actors driving this unprecedented risk landscape, as shifting global power dynamics erode decades of relative stability that underpinned Dutch peace and prosperity.
“In the 80 years since our agency was founded, we have never observed a threat environment like the one we face today: our national security is under sustained pressure from multiple directions simultaneously,” AIVD Director Simone Rmit stated during the official launch of the 2025 annual threat report. She emphasized that after generations of predictable, stable global order that allowed the Netherlands to grow and thrive, the international system has now become fundamentally volatile and unpredictable.
As a founding member of both NATO and the European Union, the Netherlands faces particularly acute external threats from two major powers: Russia and China, the report confirmed. According to AIVD analysis, Russia has grown increasingly aggressive toward Western nations, conducting regular disruptive cyberattacks and building capacity for a long-term confrontation with the NATO alliance. The assessment concludes that a direct military clash between Russia and Western powers can no longer be ruled out as an impossible outcome.
Russia has repeatedly rejected claims of planned aggression against NATO member states, countering that the “collective West” itself threatens Russian national security through its extensive financial and military backing of Ukraine amid the ongoing war.
On the Chinese front, the AIVD accuses Beijing of continuing “illicit” efforts to acquire cutting-edge Western technologies to reshape the global order in line with its own strategic and economic interests. The service notes that China has long been categorized as the top threat to Dutch economic security, and that risk has grown even more pronounced over the course of 2025. China has consistently denied engaging in any illegal technology acquisition activities and maintains it poses no threat to Western nations.
Beyond external risks, the report also highlights growing domestic security concerns. Both jihadist extremist groups and far-right extremist movements are listed as the primary internal threats to the country, with the AIVD noting that both ideologies are gaining alarming levels of traction among young Dutch people, a trend that officials describe as deeply troubling.
The AIVD’s high-profile warning underscores just how complex and multifaceted modern security challenges have become for the Netherlands, at a time when the global order is far less stable and predictable than it has been at any point in the past eight decades.