The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sent global oil and petroleum product prices on a sustained upward trajectory, pushing Jamaica to the brink of a severe energy crisis that has sparked a public disagreement between the nation’s energy leadership and its largest small business advocacy group.
Speaking at a post-Cabinet media briefing earlier this week, Energy Minister Daryl Vaz outlined the growing fiscal strain facing the Jamaican government amid skyrocketing global energy costs. For months, the administration has enforced a $4.50 per litre weekly cap on price increases for fuel produced by state-owned oil refinery Petrojam, a policy designed to shield consumers from the full force of global price hikes. Between March 12 and April 8, 2026 alone, the full average increase in transport fuel hit $49.20 per litre, with just $18 passed on to consumers. Petrojam has absorbed the remaining $31.20 per litre, accumulating a total of $1.3 to $1.4 billion (US$8.6 million) in losses over this period to cushion household and business costs.
Vaz warned that this policy is no longer financially feasible. If the cap remains in place through June 2026, he projected the total cost to the government would reach $11.8 billion – equal to two-thirds of the current budget year’s total revenue, an amount he labeled “unaffordable and unsustainable.” Price increases for Jamaican consumers could come as early as next week, he confirmed. Beyond lifting the price cap, Vaz floated potential policy adjustments to cut national fuel demand, including reinstating a COVID-19-style hybrid work-from-home order to reduce road traffic. He emphasized that no final decisions have been made, but urged the public to begin conserving fuel immediately, noting that widespread traffic on Jamaican roads suggests many residents have not grasped the severity of the crisis tied to the Middle East conflict.
That suggestion has drawn fierce pushback from Garnett Reid, president of the Small Business Association of Jamaica (SBAJ), the nation’s oldest and largest business membership organization. Reid flatly rejected any proposal to curtail commercial activity or mandate widespread remote work, arguing the move would devastate a small business sector that has already endured repeated crises in recent years.
“Many small businesses have not even recovered from the damage of recent hurricanes, first Beryl in 2024 and then Melissa in 2025,” Reid told the Jamaica Observer. “Doors are just starting to open again after those disasters – we cannot force them to close now.” He added that widespread work-from-home policies are unworkable for the vast majority of Jamaica’s small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector, pointing out that frontline and in-person workers – from fire fighters and nurses to supermarket operators, tailors, barbers, and gas station attendants – cannot perform their jobs remotely.
The SME sector serves as the backbone of the Jamaican economy, Reid noted, accounting for roughly 80 percent of total national employment and contributing billions in annual tax revenue. Already, small businesses are grappling with overlapping headwinds: high interest rates, devaluation of the Jamaican dollar, ongoing food price instability, and soaring utility costs. Any additional disruption to commercial activity would push countless vulnerable SMEs to close permanently, leaving them left behind in the nation’s economic recovery, he warned.
Instead of imposing movement restrictions, Reid called on the government to pause all policy decisions and convene urgent talks with key private and public stakeholders to craft a collaborative solution. He also called for cross-party cooperation between the ruling government and opposition to address the crisis without damaging the economy.
Reid did back some demand-reduction measures, voicing support for encouraging carpooling to cut fuel consumption, noting that shared commutes cut both fuel and toll costs for working Jamaicans. He also called on major utility providers, including the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS), to absorb additional costs rather than passing further rate hikes onto consumers. He pointed out that Jamaican ratepayers just approved a seven percent electricity rate increase and recently provided JPS with a US$150 million loan, arguing the company has room to absorb higher energy costs to protect struggling households and small businesses.
Long-term, Reid urged Jamaicans to transition to solar energy to reduce the nation’s reliance on volatile imported petroleum. While upfront installation costs are high, he noted that multiple financial institutions offer low-interest loans for solar conversion, and over time households can cut their monthly electricity costs to between $4,000 and $5,000, creating long-term financial stability even amid global energy volatility. Reid also joined calls for a rapid end to the Middle East conflict, which is the root cause of the current price spiral, noting that Jamaica is facing consecutive crises from hurricanes to geopolitical energy shocks, with the 2026 hurricane season set to begin in just months.
As of April 9, ex-refinery fuel prices in Jamaica stood at $176.88 per litre for E10-87 gasoline, $184.32 for E10-90 gasoline, $189.25 for automotive diesel, and $196.09 for ultra low sulphur diesel. Prior to the escalation of Middle East tensions, Brent crude traded steadily near US$70 per barrel. Prices rose above US$100 in early March and peaked above US$119 later that month, but saw a sharp drop on Friday following an announcement from Iran’s foreign minister that the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping – would remain fully open to commercial traffic for the duration of the current ceasefire. Following the announcement, Brent crude fell back to below US$90 per barrel, while NYMEX light sweet crude, the U.S. benchmark, also posted significant losses.