An upcoming shift in Pacific Ocean climate patterns is projected to curb hurricane formation across the Atlantic basin during the 2026 hurricane season, according to an early seasonal forecast released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, a leading research group focused on tropical storm activity. Helmed by lead researcher Philip J. Klotzbach, the new analysis lays out a clear trajectory of changing ocean and atmospheric conditions that point to a slower-than-usual storm season.
Right now, the Pacific is under the influence of weak La Niña conditions, the cool phase of the cyclical El Niño-Southern Oscillation. But the research team projects this pattern will unwind in the coming months, transitioning to an El Niño event that is likely to strengthen to at least moderate intensity by the August-to-October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
This climate shift carries outsized implications for Atlantic hurricane activity because of El Niño’s well-documented suppressing effect on storm development. El Niño, defined by sustained above-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific, drives an increase in vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin. Vertical wind shear occurs when upper-level and lower-level winds differ significantly in speed or direction, and it acts to disrupt the cohesive circular structure required for tropical disturbances to organize and intensify into hurricanes. With stronger wind shear in place, most developing storms struggle to gain strength, cutting down on the total number of hurricanes that form in a given season.
Based on the expected influence of this developing El Niño, the CSU team is projecting below-average activity for the 2026 season. Their current forecast calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (storms classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Already, observational data confirms the Pacific is on track for this transition. Sea surface temperatures across the basin have been rising steadily, with key atmospheric and oceanic drivers including intense westerly wind bursts and growing ocean heat content pushing the region out of its extended La Niña phase. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has independently backed this projection, estimating an 80% probability that El Niño will be in place by the peak of the 2026 hurricane season, further strengthening expectations of a less active season.
Despite this broad consensus, the research team has emphasized that significant uncertainty remains around just how strong the El Niño event will ultimately become. The magnitude of El Niño directly correlates to how much wind shear will increase, meaning a weaker-than-expected event could leave hurricane activity higher than current projections.
Even if the forecast holds and fewer storms form overall, experts warn that coastal and island communities cannot afford to lower their guard. Seasonal forecasts only offer a broad overview of expected total activity across the entire basin; they cannot predict weeks or months in advance where individual storms will form or whether any single storm will make landfall in a populated area. As the 2026 season approaches, even nations at high risk like Antigua and Barbuda could still face a devastating landfalling hurricane, regardless of the lower overall number of projected storms.
In line with this risk assessment, emergency management officials across hurricane-prone regions are urging all residents and communities to complete preparedness plans well ahead of the season’s start, irrespective of the early forecast calling for below-average activity.