An International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation led by Mr. David Moore has concluded its Article IV consultation mission to Antigua and Barbuda, projecting continued economic expansion while identifying persistent fiscal vulnerabilities requiring immediate attention.
The Caribbean nation’s economy demonstrated resilience with real GDP growth reaching 2.5% in 2024, primarily driven by robust tourism performance. For 2025, staff estimates indicate acceleration to 3% growth, fueled by rebounding construction activity despite plateauing tourist arrivals. Inflation showed remarkable improvement, declining from 6.2% in 2024 to a modest 1.2% in 2025, partly attributable to significant reductions in transportation costs.
Fiscal indicators revealed substantial improvement with the primary balance strengthening to 4% of GDP in 2024 and nearly 5% in 2025. This enhancement stemmed from improved tax collections, increased Citizenship by Investment Program (CIP) inflows, and restrained current expenditure. Tax revenues climbed to over 18% of GDP in 2025, though this improvement partially reflected one-time collections of tax arrears.
The public debt situation showed notable progress with the debt-to-GDP ratio declining from pandemic-era peaks of 100% to approximately 68% in 2025. However, significant challenges persist regarding substantial arrears to Paris Club and domestic creditors, alongside elevated financing requirements. The current account deficit widened to 11.5% of GDP in 2025, reversing previous improvements, mainly due to construction-related imports and stagnant tourism revenue.
Financial sector stability remains intact with moderated credit growth and non-performing loan ratios maintaining below prudential thresholds. The recent launch of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union regional credit bureau represents a significant step toward enhancing financial intermediation and credit access.
Looking forward, IMF staff projects 2.8% growth for 2026, converging toward the estimated potential growth rate of 2.5% medium-term. This outlook anticipates benefits from Antigua and Barbuda’s hosting of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in November 2026, alongside expanded tourism infrastructure. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% by end-2026, aligning with regional peers.
The mission emphasized that comprehensive strategies addressing arrears clearance and revenue mobilization remain critical for sustainable debt reduction. Staff encouraged maintaining fiscal discipline, enhancing tax administration efficiency, and implementing structural reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness. Particular attention was directed toward modernizing port infrastructure, streamlining customs procedures, and addressing persistent skills shortages through targeted workforce development initiatives.
The IMF team expressed appreciation for the constructive dialogue with Antigua and Barbuda authorities and reaffirmed commitment to supporting the nation’s economic development agenda.