Political analysts are raising alarms that potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela could unleash a catastrophic migration crisis across South America. The warnings come amid heightened tensions between the Trump administration and the government of Nicolás Maduro, with the former accusing Venezuela of facilitating drug trafficking and exporting migration problems.
Despite President Trump’s assertions that Venezuela has ‘dumped hundreds of thousands of people from prisons’ into the United States, CNN reports no evidence exists to support claims that Venezuelan migrants disproportionately served prison sentences. The administration has maintained an aggressive posture, conducting maritime strikes against suspected drug vessels since September and openly threatening imminent attacks on cartel operations within Venezuelan territory.
Immigration policy expert Gil Guerra of the Niskanen Center cautioned that even limited military engagement could spark widespread panic. ‘Any kind of military strike would cause panic and disrupt supply chains,’ Guerra explained, ‘and it would be very easy for rumors to spread and push people to flee.’
Research from the Niskanen Center projects devastating human consequences: brief internal conflict could displace 1.7 to 3 million Venezuelans within years, while prolonged combat might force over 4 million to flee—numbers that would overwhelm neighboring Colombia and Brazil, still recovering from the 2017 migration crisis.
Contrasting this assessment, former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela James Story expressed skepticism about limited strikes causing significant displacement. ‘If the US took kinetic action, it would pale in comparison to the millions who’ve already fled,’ Story told CNN, adding that only ‘widespread, sustained military combat’ would likely create a new humanitarian crisis.
The divergent expert opinions highlight the unpredictable nature of military intervention and its potential to exacerbate what is already one of Western Hemisphere’s most severe migration emergencies.