IMF Projects Inflation to Rise to 3.6% in Antigua and Barbuda as Prices Increase Across CARICOM

Newly released October 2026 data from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook report reveals that 12 out of 14 surveyed Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member states have recorded higher annual consumer price inflation in 2026 compared to 2025, a trend largely fueled by cascading shocks to global energy markets stemming from ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict. The closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly 25% of the world’s total seaborne oil trade, has driven steep spikes in global crude prices, which directly ripple across CARICOM economies that rely heavily on imported fuel, electricity generation, and transoceanic shipping for most of their food supplies. Prior to the 2026 price surge, eight CARICOM members held inflation rates below 1.5% in 2025, per IMF estimates, but all eight have seen their 2026 full-year projected inflation climb to 2.5% or higher: The Bahamas leads this group with a 3.8% projection, followed by Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Kitts and Nevis, both at 3.6%. Only two CARICOM nations, Trinidad and Tobago and Haiti, recorded declining inflation rates in 2026, bucking the regional trend. The IMF’s 2027 forward-looking forecasts indicate that a broad return to 2025’s low inflation levels is not on the horizon for the region. Six member states, including The Bahamas, Barbados, and Guyana, are projected to see inflation rise even further in 2027, while other nations will see only modest cooling. Every country that recorded a 2026 inflation jump is expected to maintain rates at or above 2.4% through 2027, with the sole exception of Dominica, which is forecast to see its inflation drop back to 1.1%. Even with this widespread regional uptick, the 2026 inflation rates for the eight fastest-growing price economies remain capped at 3.8% or lower, well below the IMF’s 2026 global average inflation projection of 4.7%. The analysis covers all 14 CARICOM member states that hold IMF membership, as Montserrat is not represented in the fund’s datasets.