A new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment released ahead of the 2026 UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) has delivered a stark warning: global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to reach 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, putting the world dangerously close to exceeding the 1.5°C warming limit outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The 2026 Emissions Gap Report finds that even if all current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, global temperatures are still on track to rise by 2.7°C by the end of the century. This trajectory would bring more frequent extreme weather events, widespread ecosystem collapse, food and water insecurity for billions of people, and irreversible damage to coastal communities from sea-level rise. UNEP Executive Director, Andrea Meza, emphasized that the gap between pledged action and what is scientifically required to stay below 1.5°C remains alarmingly wide. “What we are seeing right now is a failure of political will from the world’s largest emitters,” Meza said in a press briefing accompanying the report. China, the United States, India, and the European Union collectively account for nearly 65% of global annual emissions, and the report notes that these major economies have slowed their pace of decarbonization since COP30 in 2025, with many rolling back climate policies in response to lobbying from fossil fuel industries. The report does highlight some bright spots, however: renewable energy capacity grew by 12% globally in 2025, driven by plummeting costs for solar and wind power, and 35 countries have now implemented carbon pricing mechanisms that cover more than 20% of their domestic emissions. Small island developing states, which contribute less than 1% of cumulative historical emissions but are among the most vulnerable to climate change, have once again called on wealthy nations to fulfill their $100 billion annual climate finance pledge, which has yet to be fully met 10 years after it was promised. Ahead of COP31, which will be hosted in Brazil, negotiators are expected to focus on new global targets for cutting methane emissions from agriculture and fossil fuel extraction, as well as establishing a new loss and damage fund to support vulnerable countries coping with climate disasters. Climate scientists stress that deep, rapid cuts in emissions this decade are critical to avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, and the Emissions Gap Report makes clear that current action is nowhere near enough. “We still have the tools to avoid the worst outcomes, but we have less than three years left to make the dramatic cuts needed to stay on track for 1.5°C,” said the report’s lead author, Dr. Fabian Romero of the International Institute for Environment and Development. “Delay is not an option if we want to protect current and future generations from the worst effects of a warming planet.”