New trade data from leading commodities analytics firm Kpler reveals that crude oil exports passing through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled over the 60-day US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that expired this week. Over the course of the agreement’s lifespan, approximately 374 million barrels of crude flowed out of the Persian Gulf through the narrow waterway, averaging 6.1 million barrels per day — a sharp jump from the 2.3 million barrels per day recorded in the period before the MoU was signed on June 17.
Despite this dramatic expansion, Kpler notes that current export volumes still only reach roughly 40 percent of the pre-conflict levels seen in early 2025, when the straat handled around 15 million barrels of crude daily. Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler, explained that more than half of all MoU-period shipments were completed in the first three weeks of the agreement. After that initial window, transit volumes began to decline, and crude stockpiles started building up again at the strategic chokepoint.
The MoU, designed to pave the way for a permanent end to escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran, expired on Monday without parties reaching a lasting peace deal. Even during the temporary truce, attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued to threaten global oil supply chains, and security has deteriorated sharply in recent days.
Just last week, five separate commercial vessels were targeted in attacks. On Tuesday, a cargo ship off the coast of Oman was hit by an unidentified projectile, killing one crew member. This incident marks the first fatal attack on commercial shipping in the region since July. The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners issued a statement emphasizing that seafarers are civilians and should never be targeted as part of geopolitical power struggles.
Data from the International Maritime Organization shows that since the outbreak of open conflict between the US, Israel and Iran in February, at least 18 seafarers have been killed in attacks on commercial vessels in the region. Both US and Iranian forces have claimed responsibility for multiple strikes on shipping in the strait and surrounding waters.
Before the 2025 conflict, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for roughly one-fifth of all global crude oil exports, making its security a core driver of global energy market stability. Preliminary data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows that between August 10 and 16, just 73 vessel transits were recorded through the waterway, down from 91 transits the previous week, indicating a growing pullback from shipping operators amid rising security fears.
Global oil markets reacted to the escalating uncertainty on Thursday, with Brent crude futures edging up slightly to trade at $91.93 per barrel. Analysts warn that market sentiment remains deeply skeptical of long-term security for transit through the strait, as long as no durable diplomatic solution is reached. Tim Waterer, a market analyst at KCM Trade, explained that without concrete confirmation of safe passage and a stable diplomatic framework to de-escalate tensions, market confidence will remain low. “Without clear evidence of safe transit and a stable diplomatic framework, confidence will stay low, and volumes will not see a substantive recovery,” Waterer noted.