New long-term demographic projections released by the Dominican Republic’s National Statistics Office (ONE) paint a clear picture of sweeping population transformation underway in the Caribbean nation, driven by rising life expectancy, plummeting birth rates, and rapid population aging over the coming decades.
Developed in partnership with the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE), which provided specialized technical support for the analysis, the projections outline dramatic shifts in key demographic indicators through the end of the 21st century. According to the study, average life expectancy at birth is on track to jump from 75.7 years in 2026 to 91.5 years by 2100, a gain of more than 15 years that reflects improvements in public health, medical care, and quality of life across the country.
At the same time, fertility rates will remain well below the 2.1 replacement level required to sustain a stable population without immigration. The report projects that the average number of children per woman will fall from 1.97 in 2026 to roughly 1.7 in the coming decades, a decline that will reshape the country’s age structure dramatically. The national average age is expected to climb from 32.9 years in 2026 to 51.6 years by 2100, making the Dominican Republic’s population one of the oldest in the Latin American and Caribbean region by the end of the century.
One of the most notable milestones highlighted in the analysis is set to arrive mid-century: by 2050, the Dominican Republic will record more residents aged 65 and older than people under 15, marking the first time this demographic shift has occurred in the nation’s history. The share of seniors in the total population is projected to triple over the next 77 years, rising from 9% today to 17% in 2050 and hitting 36% by 2100. Meanwhile, the proportion of children and young adolescents will continue a steady decline that has been underway for the past two decades.
Total population size will follow a different trajectory: growth is expected to continue through the 2070s, when the national population will hit a peak before entering a gradual decline that brings it down to roughly 11.9 million inhabitants by 2100. Beyond the core trends of aging and falling fertility, the projections also point to other positive demographic shifts, including a continued drop in adolescent fertility rates and slowing overall population growth.
Notably, the analysis identifies an ongoing “demographic window of opportunity” that will remain open through roughly 2065, driven by a relatively low dependency ratio – the proportion of non-working age residents that working-age populations must support. ONE officials emphasized that the new projections are far more than an academic exercise: the data will serve as a critical foundation for shaping long-term public policy across sectors, from healthcare and pension systems to housing and education, as the country prepares to address the far-reaching economic and social impacts of its rapidly aging population.