On May 29, 2026, a high-stakes decision over a potential landmark agreement between the United States and Iran hangs in the balance, as President Donald Trump convenes senior White House advisors in the Situation Room to weigh what he describes as a “final determination” on the deal that could end months of open military conflict and unclog one of the world’s most vital global shipping chokepoints.
Negotiators from both nations have already struck a tentative framework this week that lays out two core commitments: the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supplies pass, and the launch of formal negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. But the deal remains far from finalized: Trump has not yet given his official approval, and Iranian government representatives have so far declined to issue any public statement on the draft terms.
Details of the draft memorandum of understanding, shared by anonymous U.S. officials, outline a phased mutual drawdown over a 60-day timeline. Under the proposal, Iran would step by step relax its restrictions on shipping movement through the strait, while the United States would simultaneously wind down its naval blockade of Iranian ports and waterways.
Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has offered a cautious, skeptical reaction to the emerging agreement, reflecting longstanding distrust between the two nations. “In negotiations with the United States, we have no trust in guarantees or words — only actions are the measure,” Ghalibaf warned, underscoring Tehran’s insistence on tangible, verifiable steps from Washington before it commits to any deal.
The push for a final agreement unfolds against an increasingly volatile security backdrop, with fresh clashes breaking out just hours before Trump’s deliberations. Both sides have traded accusations of ceasefire violations in overnight engagements: U.S. forces based in Kuwait were reported to be the target of an Iranian missile strike, while Tehran confirmed it had launched the attack against a U.S. military installation it accuses of carrying out earlier strikes on Bandar Abbas, Iran’s key port city located adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz.
The current cycle of full-scale military conflict between the two nations traces back to February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a coordinated series of massive joint strikes targeting Iranian military installations, government facilities, and critical national infrastructure, igniting months of sustained fighting that has disrupted global energy markets and raised fears of a broader regional war.