Even as leading climate agencies forecast a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, Caribbean disaster management officials are sounding a clear call to action: regional nations cannot let their guard down against a wide range of climate hazards that threaten communities year-round. The warning came from Elizabeth Riley, Executive Director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), delivered during the agency’s annual pre-season regional press conference held ahead of the official start of the hurricane season on June 1.
While the Atlantic hurricane season is formally defined as running from June 1 to November 30, Riley emphasized that Caribbean countries face multiple climate threats beyond this six-month window, meaning preparedness efforts cannot be limited to this narrow timeframe. Entering the 2026 season, the region has built up substantial capacity through past disaster experiences, refined emergency response protocols, and strengthened cross-regional and international partnerships, but Riley cautioned that shifting climate patterns remain inherently unpredictable and capable of causing severe disruption.
Released on May 27, the latest seasonal outlook from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) projects the 2026 season will produce approximately 12 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes—putting it on track to be less active than the severe seasons the region has seen in recent years. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) echoed this projection, forecasting an eight to 14 range for named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes, classifying the season as below normal. Both outlooks cite ongoing El Niño conditions as the primary factor expected to suppress tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the Atlantic this year.
Despite the muted overall forecast, Riley outlined multiple overlapping threats that demand urgent preparedness. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures around the northern Caribbean, she explained, can still supercharge storm systems to produce extreme rainfall, even for weaker tropical cyclones. This abundant precipitation translates to elevated risks of severe flooding and flash floods across much of the Caribbean, putting low-lying and coastal communities at particular risk.
Beyond storm-related flooding, the region is already grappling with persistent drought across several CDEMA member states, and conditions are expected to either hold steady or expand in scope by the end of 2026. While seasonal rainfall from tropical systems may temporarily ease localized water shortages, Riley noted that long-term drought pressures will remain a key concern for public water supplies and agricultural production through the rest of the year.
A growing underrecognized threat is also taking center place this year: extreme heat. The CIMH outlook predicts unusually intense heat across the Caribbean during August and September, with more frequent heat waves and warmer than average temperatures through both day and night. These conditions will drive higher rates of heat-related illness and heat stress for vulnerable populations, a hazard Riley said the region has only recently begun to prioritize for emergency preparedness after years of rising heat risks linked to climate change.
Riley closed her remarks by reinforcing the core lesson the Caribbean learned from Hurricane Melissa last year: even a season projected to be mild can turn devastating if a single major storm makes landfall. “It only takes one hurricane hitting a populated area of the Caribbean to create a catastrophic disaster, regardless of how many total storms are predicted,” she said. “That is why thorough, year-round preparedness is non-negotiable every single season, no matter what the forecasts say.”