The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a cautious assessment of Antigua and Barbuda’s economic trajectory, flagging persistent labor and skills gaps alongside limited domestic capacity as key headwinds that could dampen long-term growth even as the nation continues to record solid near-term expansion.
In its concluding statement following the latest Article IV consultation — the IMF’s regular annual economic health check — the organization emphasized that risks to the Caribbean nation’s outlook remain skewed toward the downside. These risks stem from a mix of persistent global economic uncertainty and domestic structural bottlenecks that limit the country’s ability to capitalize on growth opportunities.
Among the most pressing domestic challenges identified by IMF executive directors are widespread labor and skills shortages. The organization warned that if these gaps are left unaddressed, they will act as a persistent drag on sustainable development. Directors urged Antigua and Barbuda’s government to prioritize tackling these shortages as a core component of broader policy reforms designed to boost national competitiveness and lay the groundwork for robust long-term economic expansion.
Beyond addressing workforce gaps, the IMF called for targeted structural reforms to lift overall productivity and improve transportation and digital connectivity, two pillars that underpin the country’s vital trade and tourism sectors. Key policy recommendations put forward by the organization include streamlining inefficient port and customs clearance procedures to reduce trade frictions, and adopting a more disciplined, prioritization-focused approach to public infrastructure investment to ensure resources deliver maximum economic impact.
The IMF’s warning comes amid positive near-term economic data for the dual-island nation. The organization projects that Antigua and Barbuda will record a 3% real GDP growth rate in 2025, with expansion largely driven by sustained strength in the construction sector even as tourism output grows at a slower pace than previously expected.
The report also noted encouraging near-term macroeconomic trends: total employment has now fully recovered to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, while headline inflation has cooled dramatically to 1.4% in 2025, a sharp decline from the elevated levels seen in recent years.
While the IMF highlighted multiple downside risks to the outlook, it also emphasized that upside potential remains available. If authorities implement the recommended productivity-enhancing reforms, strengthen connectivity, and see a rebound in global tourism demand, Antigua and Barbuda can build a more resilient and faster-growing economy over the medium term.