The annual Munich Security Conference concluded with a resounding appeal for strengthened international cooperation amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. The three-day gathering, which focused extensively on the Ukraine conflict, evolving US-Europe relations, and shifting global power dynamics, highlighted the critical need for collaborative action and dialogue.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen captured the profound transformation occurring among European leaders when she stated: ‘Boundaries have been crossed that cannot be reversed.’ This sentiment emerged against the backdrop of strained transatlantic relations following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The American president’s attempt to annex Greenland has dramatically intensified European doubts about Washington’s commitment to continental protection through NATO.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered limited reassurance to European attendees in his conference address. While expressing desire for cooperation and employing a warmer tone than Vice President JD Vance previously, Rubio criticized Europe’s recent political direction and notably avoided any mention of NATO, Russia, or Moscow’s war in Ukraine—issues that have created significant rifts within the alliance.
With the conflict approaching its fifth year and Moscow increasingly perceived as a growing threat by its European neighbors, continental leaders declared they would accelerate efforts to strengthen their own defense capabilities and reduce dependence on the United States.
This position theoretically aligns with the Trump administration’s expectation that Europe will assume primary responsibility for conventional defense of the continent. In exchange, Washington would maintain its nuclear umbrella over Europe and honor NATO’s mutual defense pact.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged their commitment to building a stronger ‘European pillar’ within NATO. However, enhanced independent defense capabilities also serve as insurance should Trump or future American leaders decide against defending Europe.
‘This new beginning is correct under all circumstances. It is correct if the United States continues to distance itself. It is correct as long as we cannot independently guarantee our own security,’ Merz stated during Friday’s sessions.
In another indication of unease regarding American security commitments, Merz revealed he had initiated discussions with Macron about European nuclear deterrence. France possesses Europe’s only truly independent nuclear deterrent, as Britain’s Trident missiles are manufactured and maintained by the United States.
The central challenge for European leaders remains translating rhetoric into reality—acquiring and developing new weapons systems, addressing arsenal gaps in areas like long-range missiles, and coordinating efforts effectively.
Current signals are mixed. Driven by fear of Russia and Trump’s prodding, European nations have increased defense spending. NATO members agreed last year to raise core defense expenditures from 2% to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% allocated for other security-related investments. Von der Leyen noted that European defense spending has surged by nearly 80% since before Ukraine’s invasion.
European countries are forming consortia to develop complex weapons systems. Defense ministers from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Sweden signed a letter of intent to advance the European Long-range Strike Approach (ELSA), a project focused on developing ‘deep strike’ missiles. During a parallel NATO defense ministers meeting, European coalitions agreed to collaborate on four projects including ballistic missile defense and air-launched munitions.
However, several high-profile pan-European initiatives face significant challenges. The future of the French-German-Spanish FCAS fighter jet project hangs by a thread after months of disputes over work distribution among involved companies. Debates surrounding EU defense projects continue regarding whether they should remain exclusive to EU companies or open to external participants.
France remains the strongest proponent of ‘buy European’ clauses, while Germany and the Netherlands advocate for a more open approach.
Amid these discussions at the luxurious Bayerischer Hof hotel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented the stark reality of modern warfare, surrounded by massive screens displaying imagery and statistics of Russian attacks. Ukraine alone faced over 6,000 drones and 150 missiles last month.
‘During this war, weapons are evolving faster than political decisions designed to stop them,’ he told delegates.
As the Munich Security Conference concludes, the world continues to confront urgent security challenges while maintaining hope that collective efforts may yield sustainable solutions within an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.