The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued an optimistic yet cautious economic forecast for Antigua and Barbuda, projecting sustained growth through 2026 while highlighting significant external and domestic vulnerabilities that could impede progress.
According to the Fund’s concluding Article IV statement for 2026, the twin-island nation’s economic recovery gained substantial momentum in 2025, propelled by resurgent construction sectors, robust tourism performance, and moderating inflationary pressures. Economic expansion reached approximately 2.5% in 2024, accelerating to 3% in 2025, with real GDP growth anticipated between 2.5% and 2.8% for 2026.
Several catalytic developments are expected to fuel economic activity, notably Antigua and Barbuda’s hosting of the prestigious Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in November 2026. This high-profile event, coupled with strategically expanded hotel infrastructure and enhanced port facilities, is projected to significantly boost visitor arrivals and stimulate broader economic engagement.
The IMF simultaneously identified multiple risk factors that could disrupt growth trajectories. Global economic uncertainty, escalating geopolitical tensions, commodity market volatility, and potential revenue reductions from the Citizenship by Investment program present substantial external challenges. Domestically, climate vulnerability to extreme weather events and capacity limitations within the construction industry require careful monitoring and mitigation strategies.
Inflationary pressures have notably subsided from 2024 peaks, with current levels aligning closely with regional averages, primarily attributable to declining transportation costs. The current account deficit demonstrates a gradual narrowing trend, while public debt continues its downward trajectory toward the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s benchmark of 60% of GDP—though outstanding arrears and financing requirements remain areas of concern.
Prime Minister Gaston Browne, who also serves as Finance Minister, welcomed the assessment as validation of his administration’s economic stewardship. The IMF’s findings culminate a comprehensive month-long evaluation mission conducted in January, with final recommendations scheduled for presentation to the Executive Board in forthcoming weeks.