A strategic shift is underway in global finance as BRICS nations intensify their campaign to reduce dependence on the US dollar in international trade. This movement, spearheaded by developing economies across the Global South, represents the most significant challenge to dollar dominance since the currency established its hegemony after World War II.
The recent integration of Standard Bank—Africa’s largest bank by assets—into China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) marks a pivotal development. This connection enables African businesses to conduct direct transactions with China in renminbi, eliminating the need for dollar intermediation. Similar initiatives are proliferating: Brazil now settles soybean exports to China in local currencies, while India and the UAE conduct trade in rupees and dirhams. China has also established yuan-based trade agreements with numerous partners including Argentina, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
Beyond bilateral arrangements, the BRICS coalition is developing more comprehensive alternatives. Project mBridge, a multi-central bank digital currency platform utilizing blockchain technology, aims to facilitate trade without dollar involvement or reliance on the SWIFT messaging system. Although not yet operational, a working model is anticipated at the upcoming BRICS summit in India.
Analysts identify multiple drivers behind this de-dollarization trend. Sanusha Naidu, foreign policy analyst at South Africa’s Institute for Global Dialogue, highlights the ‘hidden cost’ imposed by dollar transactions that ultimately benefits the United States. Additionally, growing concerns about US political unpredictability and mounting national debt—now exceeding $38 trillion—have eroded confidence in dollar stability, as reflected in rising gold and silver prices.
Despite these developments, experts caution that dollar supremacy remains secure for the foreseeable future. Investment analyst Chris Weafer notes that the dollar continues to serve as the primary pricing currency for oil and commodities, while maintaining its status as the dominant reserve currency among central banks. The lack of viable alternatives ensures continued dollar dominance in the short to medium term.
However, the strategic direction is clear. Countries seek not necessarily to replace the dollar but to diversify settlement systems and avoid Western-controlled financial infrastructure. As Professor Danny Bradlow of the University of Pretoria observes, a system less dependent on one nation’s monetary policy would reduce vulnerability for all participants.
The ultimate transformation of global currency architecture, experts suggest, would require the ‘petroyuan’ replacing the ‘petrodollar’ as the primary oil pricing and settlement currency—a development that would fundamentally alter the dollar’s global standing. While such a shift remains distant, the current trajectory indicates a gradual but persistent decline in dollar centrality within the international financial system.