The International Monetary Fund has issued a stern warning that Suriname’s recent fiscal and monetary policy deviations have substantially eroded earlier gains in macroeconomic stability. This assessment emerges from the conclusive deliberations of the 2025 Article IV consultation by the IMF Executive Board.
While short-term economic growth remains moderately stable, partly fueled by optimistic projections within the oil sector, the IMF emphasizes that immediate reinforcement of budgetary discipline and monetary policy is imperative to curb escalating inflation and exchange rate pressures.
Economic growth shows signs of deceleration primarily due to declining gold production output. Concurrently, fiscal and monetary policy missteps throughout 2025 have precipitated diminished cash reserves, weakened the Surinamese dollar (SRD), and triggered a resurgence of double-digit inflation. Government debt has surged to an estimated 106% of GDP, exacerbated by ongoing debt restructuring initiatives.
The current account deficit expanded significantly to over 30% of GDP in 2025, largely driven by substantial imports for offshore oil projects, predominantly financed through foreign direct investment inflows.
The IMF projects non-resource sector growth to reach 4.7% in 2026, propelled by oil development optimism. Medium-term forecasts indicate sustained economic expansion of approximately 4% until 2028, potentially culminating in an extraordinary growth surge of nearly 30% following the commencement of offshore oil production.
However, the Fund simultaneously cautions about substantial downside risks, particularly if policy frameworks continue to deteriorate. Long-term prospects remain favorable through further oil and gas development opportunities.
IMF executive directors acknowledged achievements under the IMF program concluded in March 2025 but observed that recent policy choices have largely undermined these gains. Authorities are urged to recommit to prudent macroeconomic management, institutional strengthening, and enhanced governance as Suriname approaches its transition to large-scale oil production.
Fiscal balance improvement is deemed critical for containing inflation and exchange rate pressures while rebuilding buffers. Although recent debt operations provide short-term liquidity relief, the IMF considers substantial fiscal adjustment in 2026 essential. This necessitates elevating primary surpluses, constraining wage bill expansion, resuming electricity subsidy reductions, broadening the tax base, and advancing revenue administration digitalization.
The Fund underscores that robust institutions are indispensable for transparent and accountable management of future oil revenues. Full and timely implementation of recently adopted public financial management legislation and Sovereign Wealth Fund frameworks is paramount.
Regarding monetary policy, the IMF recommends stricter alignment of money supply with established targets through open market operations and further central bank strengthening. Exchange rate interventions should be reserved exclusively for addressing severe market disruptions.
Additionally, the IMF advocates enhanced supervision of banking and non-bank financial institutions, alongside continued progress in combating corruption, money laundering, and terrorist financing.
The Fund anticipates continued cooperation with Suriname under the Post Financing Assessment framework, with the next Article IV consultation scheduled within the standard twelve-month cycle.