Economist and Independent Senator Marlene Attzs has issued a stark warning to Trinidad and Tobago’s business community about the looming threat of catastrophic “black swan” events that could devastate even well-established enterprises. Speaking at a conference hosted by the TT Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the TT Chamber of Industry and Commerce on January 13, Attzs described these events as a dangerous convergence of unpredictable shocks that could derail the most carefully laid business plans.
The urgency of this warning is underscored by recent developments in the local business landscape, including Newsday’s announcement of its winding-up process after more than three decades of operation. Managing director Grant Taylor attributed this decision to a “perfect storm” of challenges, mirroring similar struggles across multiple industries from energy to retail and entertainment.
Attzs emphasized that these black swan events may already be unfolding, citing recent airspace compromises that forced flight cancellations as a potential precursor to more significant disruptions. She pointed to escalating geopolitical tensions, including the US-China rivalry and renewed Russian activity, as factors that could create concentric circles of impact affecting even peripheral economies like Trinidad and Tobago.
The conference panel, which included TTEITI co-ordinator Sherwin Long, senior fellow Preeya Mohan, and chairman Gregory McGuire, identified multiple systemic risks to the national economy. Chief among these is the country’s persistent dependence on the volatile oil and gas sector, which continues to drive GDP fluctuations and government revenue instability.
Long revealed that between 2011 and 2024, the upstream energy sector contributed US$17.3 billion in foreign exchange, with companies like bpTT and NGC providing over US$7 billion. However, he noted that this volatility is largely driven by external factors beyond local control, including global energy prices, demand-supply imbalances, and geopolitical tensions.
Attzs highlighted additional concerns regarding the nation’s economic dependence on government support and rising debt challenges. Latest data indicates Trinidad and Tobago’s debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 85 percent and continues to climb, creating fiscal constraints that could limit the government’s ability to respond to economic crises.
Mohan addressed emerging trade-related risks, particularly the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and adjustments to tariff regimes. She warned that 90 percent of TT’s exports to the EU—accounting for 14 percent of total exports—could be affected by CBAM, while half of exports to the US (30 percent of total) face similar exposure. These mechanisms could increase taxes on the ammonia sector by 22 percent, though implementation of emission reduction technologies like carbon capture could mitigate these impacts.
The consensus among experts is that data-driven preparedness represents the most effective defense against these converging challenges. Attzs urged businesses to professionalize, modernize, and leverage available data to build resilience, conduct thorough risk analyses, and develop strategic plans for survival in an increasingly uncertain global economic landscape.