President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Cuba through his Truth Social platform, declaring that the island nation will no longer receive oil or financial support from Venezuela and urging Cuban leadership to negotiate with Washington “before it’s too late.”
The warning comes amid significant geopolitical shifts following the apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. Trump has since pressured Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez to redirect Venezuelan oil exports to the United States, potentially cutting off Cuba’s primary energy supplier.
“Cuba lived for many years receiving large amounts of oil and money from Venezuela,” Trump stated in his social media post. “No more oil or money is going to Cuba – Zero! I strongly recommend that they make a deal.”
According to intelligence assessments reviewed by Reuters, U.S. intelligence agencies present a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political stability, though their analyses stop short of fully endorsing Trump’s prediction that the island is “ready to fall.” Three sources familiar with confidential intelligence reports indicate that while Cuba faces severe challenges, the situation may not be immediately catastrophic.
The CIA assessment highlights critical vulnerabilities in Cuba’s agricultural and tourism sectors, which have been battered by frequent power outages, trade sanctions, and other systemic issues. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela—a decades-long ally—would significantly complicate governance for the administration that has ruled since Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution.
Shipping data and documents from Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA reveal the devastating impact such a cutoff would have: between January and November of last year, Venezuela shipped an average of 27,000 barrels per day to Cuba, covering approximately 50% of the island’s oil deficit.