Global oil markets experienced significant price increases on Monday as geopolitical tensions and supply disruption concerns intensified. The benchmark Brent crude futures climbed by $1.31 (2.17%) to reach $61.78 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.25 (2.2%) to $57.77 per barrel.
The price surge follows the U.S. interception of an oil tanker in international waters off Venezuela’s coast, marking what officials described as potentially the third such operation in less than two weeks if successful. This development, combined with ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, has heightened market anxieties about potential supply disruptions.
Market analysts note a shifting perspective among investors regarding Venezuelan oil exports. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo observed that market participants are now recognizing risks to Venezuela’s oil exports due to U.S. embargo enforcement, whereas previously they had been relatively complacent. Venezuelan crude represents approximately 1% of global supply.
The market dynamics reflect a complex balance between supply factors. Growing output from the United States and OPEC+ producers has largely offset concerns about supply disruptions elsewhere, keeping Brent futures around $65 per barrel in the second half of 2025. However, prices have declined recently due to oversupply worries.
According to Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh, oil prices are being supported by developments near Venezuela while Russia-Ukraine tensions simmer in the background of an otherwise highly volatile market.
The recent price recovery was triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “total and complete” blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, followed by reports of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian shadow vessel in the Mediterranean, as noted by IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
Despite last week’s approximately 1% decline in both benchmarks, diplomatic efforts continue. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff described recent trilateral talks between American, European, and Ukrainian officials in Florida as productive, focusing on aligning positions to end the Russian war in Ukraine. However, the primary foreign policy advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that European and Ukrainian modifications to U.S. proposals had not improved peace prospects.