A comprehensive business survey reveals Trinidad and Tobago’s private sector is navigating significant short-term challenges while maintaining guarded optimism for medium-term recovery. The Q4 2025 Business Outlook Index, jointly compiled by the TT Chamber of Industry and Commerce and Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business and released December 10, presents a complex picture of an economy in transition.
The data indicates substantial current pressures, with 54% of executives reporting worsened financial performance over the past six months. Only 3% of businesses described their performance as “much better” compared to the beginning of the year, while 43% reported some improvement. The survey reveals stark sectoral variations: while administrative and support services saw 100% of respondents reporting better conditions, the agricultural sector experienced universal deterioration with 100% reporting worse conditions.
The energy sector emerged as particularly challenged, with over 66% of respondents noting deteriorated economic conditions. Conversely, accommodation and food services showed remarkable resilience with 75% reporting improved conditions (50% better, 25% much better). Construction and manufacturing displayed mixed signals, with 45% and 54.55% respectively reporting better conditions.
Significant uncertainty surrounds government policy impacts, with 24% of businesses unsure which areas would benefit from current policies. Only 17% anticipated enhanced public-private collaboration, while 16% predicted better foreign exchange access and 14% expected improved ease of doing business.
The recent 100% excise duty increase on alcohol announced in the October budget has dramatically altered hiring intentions in the food and beverage sector. Pre-announcement, 75% of accommodation and food service businesses planned hiring within 6-12 months. Post-announcement, 40% anticipate employment decreases within six months, while 50% expect reductions within twelve months.
Despite these challenges, businesses maintain medium-term confidence. The global economic outlook shows improvement from negative to positive over the next year, reflecting expectations of easing inflation, recovering energy demand, and improved logistical conditions. The chamber notes that for an energy-exporting nation like Trinidad and Tobago, improved global prospects typically translate to enhanced business confidence.
The report concludes that while current conditions remain challenging, businesses view these as cyclical rather than permanent. The chamber recommends strengthened public-private dialogue to reduce policy uncertainty and support sector-specific adjustments following recent fiscal changes.