As Antigua and Barbuda approaches its pivotal 2026 budget presentation on December 4th, the nation stands at a critical juncture in its development trajectory. Professor C. Justin Robinson, Principal of The UWI Five Islands Campus, articulates a compelling vision for national resilience that transcends conventional economic planning.
This generation’s challenge mirrors the historical struggles against slavery and colonialism that defined previous eras. While the battles have evolved from physical liberation to structural fortification, the stakes remain equally consequential. The contemporary test involves constructing a nation capable of withstanding intensifying climate disruptions, volatile economic shifts, and external pressures on development programs.
The budgetary framework presents an unprecedented opportunity to institutionalize resilience as the organizing principle of national policy. This requires moving beyond rhetorical commitments to implement concrete measures across economic, climatic, and institutional domains. More significantly, it demands reconceptualizing resilience as collective endeavor rather than individual preservation—a philosophy captured by the adage that rising tides must lift all boats to prevent universal inundation.
Antigua and Barbuda’s fiscal foundation demonstrates remarkable transformation. Public debt has plummeted from 131% of GDP in 2004 to 67% today, representing one of the Caribbean’s most successful fiscal turnarounds. Economic performance has been equally impressive, with positive GDP growth in nine of ten pre-pandemic years and robust recovery post-COVID: 8.2% (2021), 9.5% (2022), 8.1% (2023), and 4.3% (2024). The nation now operates with a 3.5% primary surplus, exceeding pre-pandemic output levels.
The Citizenship by Investment Programme (CIP) warrants strategic consideration, contributing over 70% of non-tax revenue without burdening residents. Recent external pressures—including potential U.S. visa restrictions and EU scrutiny—highlight the necessity of diversifying revenue streams through enhanced tax compliance and broadened domestic tax bases rather than abandoning successful programs.
Tourism remains the economic bedrock at 60% of GDP, with the 2024 season achieving record arrivals and over $1 billion in planned investments. The challenge involves maximizing sectoral linkages by developing complementary industries: agriculture supplying hotels, creative sectors enhancing visitor experiences, and services expanding to meet evolving demands.
Climate vulnerability presents existential threats, underscored by Hurricane Irma’s 2017 devastation of Barbuda and Hurricane Melissa’s recent Category-5 destruction in Jamaica. These events confirm scientific consensus about intensifying storm severity due to human-driven warming, necessitating infrastructure investments that transition from adaptation rhetoric to concrete reinforcement.
The November 2026 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, themed ‘Accelerating Partnerships and Investment for a Prosperous Commonwealth,’ provides providential timing for demonstrating resilience leadership. A comprehensive resilience budget would include: contingency planning for CIP volatility; climate-resilient infrastructure; human capital development exemplified by the $80 million UWI Five Islands Campus expansion; and deepened economic linkages ensuring macroeconomic gains translate into shared prosperity.
Ultimately, national purpose must transcend individual ambition, measuring success by household security rather than elite fortunes. This ethos echoes ancestral wisdom where communities collectively raised children, rebuilt after storms, and supported vulnerable members. For small island states, this represents not sentimental idealism but survival strategy.
Budget 2026 constitutes a moral document that can honor the legacy of ancestors who fought for freedom by ensuring future generations remain free from vulnerability. By building structural resilience and social solidarity, Antigua and Barbuda can demonstrate to the world—and itself—what truly transformative governance accomplishes.