The escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, coupled with the presence of warships in the region, have sparked widespread concern in Trinidad and Tobago (TT). The economic implications of such conflicts are profound, as highlighted by a recent study from Germany’s Kiel Institute. Analyzing data from over 150 wars since 1870, the study reveals that war zones experience a 30% decline in GDP and a 15% rise in inflation over five years. Neighboring countries, even if not directly involved, face a 10% GDP drop and a 5% inflation increase. For TT, these figures are particularly alarming due to its close economic ties with Venezuela, which has already suspended energy deals with TT. The energy sector is a cornerstone of TT’s economy, and the suspension has already impacted local fishermen and businesses. The country, still recovering from an 8.8% economic contraction in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, cannot afford another significant downturn. A 10% decline in output would devastate households, businesses, and the broader social fabric. Moreover, TT’s relationship with Venezuela is strained, with the latter declaring TT’s Prime Minister persona non grata. This tension could lead to a loss of confidence among Caricom members and investors, further destabilizing TT’s economy. While some large economies, like the US, Russia, and Israel, have historically grown during wars, smaller neighboring countries bear the brunt of the economic fallout. The presence of the USS Gravely in TT underscores the region’s volatility. As Dr. Jamelia Harris, an economist, aptly notes, ‘Nobody wins a war,’ yet the economic and social costs for smaller nations like TT are disproportionately high.
