The Central Statistical Office (CSO) recently announced a decline in inflation to one per cent for the previous month. While this is a positive development, questions arise about the timing of this information, released just four days after Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo presented the national budget. The budget included fiscal measures directly impacting prices, such as reductions in super gasoline costs and increased duties on alcohol and tobacco. This raises concerns about the CSO’s role in forecasting the effects of such budgetary measures. Currently, the CSO collaborates with government departments in data collection and analysis but lacks a formal role in projecting budget impacts. Historically, the CSO’s data has been somewhat delayed, though this gap has significantly narrowed in recent years. The budget process is inherently forward-looking, with only a minor focus on past reporting. Given the CSO’s annual budget of at least $55 million, there is a strong argument for its involvement in estimating future fiscal impacts. Globally, independent fiscal oversight bodies, such as the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility and the US Congressional Budget Office, are common. Locally, the establishment of an Economic Resilience Council is underway, but a neutral, independent body outside Parliament is deemed essential for thorough budget scrutiny. Utilizing existing institutions like the CSO and the Central Bank could enhance the timeliness and relevance of fiscal data, ensuring it remains useful rather than outdated.
